consumption and leisure. Output volatility is comparable with a rational expectations analysis with a standard deviation of … technology shock that is 20 percent smaller, and has substantially more volatility in investment and hours. Persistence in these …

choices matter for output volatility and the medium-term level of inflation. Greater monetary independence is associated with … lower output volatility while greater exchange rate stability implies greater output volatility, which can be mitigated if a … inflation rate. We find that trilemma policy configurations and external finances affect output volatility through the …

the entire risk-neutral probability density function (pdf) over horizons of one and three months. We compare three … consistent with target zones with endogenous realignment risk. We discuss two interpretations of our results on skewness: when a … currency is stronger, the actual probability of further large appreciation is higher, or because of risk, such states are …

primarily in response to changes in expectations of depreciation, or in the risk premium. We find that changes in expected … five major currencies, that variation in the risk premium constitutes a large part of variation in the forward discount as …

growth and real exchange rate changes, a key measure of international risk-sharing …

increase in total volatility led to a significant increase in market risk (beta) for the multinational firms relative to the … the relation between exchange rate variability and stock return volatility and by decomposing this relation into … components of systematic and diversifiable risk. Focusing on two periods around the 1973 switch from fixed to floating exchange …

volatility shocks is consistent with the empirical evidence. Furthermore we show that risk factors and interest-rate smoothing … appreciates in the medium run, while an increase in the volatility of productivity leads to a dollar depreciation. We propose a …

suffered most increases in output volatility as a result …