I introduce a model of undirected dyadic link formation which allows for assortative matching on observed agent characteristics (homophily) as well as unrestricted agent level heterogeneity in link surplus (degree heterogeneity). Like in fixed effects panel data analyses, the joint distribution...

This paper develops an arbitrage-free time-series model of yields in continuous time that incorporates central bank policy. Policy-related events, such as FOMC meetings and releases of macroeconomic news the Fed cares about, are modeled as jumps. The model introduces a class of linear-quadratic...

The Rational Distributed Lag Structural Form of an econometric model is introduced, and its relationship to several traditional forms of representation is discussed. The traditional forms are viewed as special cases of the Rational Structural Form. Thus, the latter provides a unified framework...

We develop a Bayesian latent factor model of the joint evolution of GDP per capita for 113 countries over the 118 years from 1900 to 2017. We find considerable heterogeneity in rates of convergence, including rates for some countries that are so slow that they might not converge (or diverge) in...

This paper examines the stochastic properties of aggregate macroeconomic time series from the standpoint of fractionally integrated models, and focuses on the persistence of economic shocks. We develop a simple macroeconomic model that exhibits long-term dependence, a consequence of aggregation...

Ten years have passed since John Donohue and Steven Levitt initially proposed that legalized abortion played a major role in the dramatic decline in crime during the 1990s. Criminologists largely dismiss the association because simple plots of age-specific crime rates are inconsistent with a...

This paper provides the first empirical examination of the impact of federal and state "Pattern-or-Practice" investigations on crime and policing. For investigations that were not preceded by "viral" incidents of deadly force, investigations, on average, led to a statistically significant...