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Expectations and Forecasts from Business Outlook Surveys

Zarnowitz, Victor - 1982

and autocorrelation of error. The marginal forecast errors tend to increase, and the correlations between predictions and …

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012478266

Dynamic Prediction Pools : An Investigation of Financial Frictions and Forecasting Performance

Del Negro, Marco - 2014

environment, leading to real-time forecast improvements relative to other methods of density forecast combination, such as …

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012458090

A New Way of Forecasting Recessions

Leamer, Edward E. - National Bureau of Economic Research - 2022

inserted into these images where the recent data are most similar to the historical data. This amounts to a forecast. The … traditional probit model used to forecast recessions inappropriately treats every observation as a separate experiment. This new …

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013334464

Macroeconomics Forecasts and Microeconomic Forecasters

Lamont, Owen - 1995

produce more radical forecasts. Since these more radical forecasts are in general less accurate, ex post forecast accuracy …

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012473586

Consensus and Uncertainty in Economic Prediction

Zarnowitz, Victor - 1983

surveys provide unique informationon probabilistic forecast distributions reported by a large number of individuals for …

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012477929

The Accuracy of Individual and Group Forecasts from Business Outlook Surveys

Zarnowitz, Victor - 1982

This paper reports on a comprehensive study of the distributions of summary measures of error for a large collection of quarterly multiperiod predictions of six variables representing inflation, real qrowth, unemployment,and percentage changes in nominal GNP and two of its more volatile...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012478052