Population aging is widely assumed to have detrimental effects on economic growth yet there is little empirical evidence about the magnitude of its effects. This paper starts from the observation that many U.S. states have already experienced substantial growth in the size of their older...

Large shocks to local labor markets can cause long-lasting changes to employment, unemployment and the local labor force. This study examines the relationship between mass layoffs and the long-run size of the local labor force. It considers four main channels through which the local labor force...

Concerns that there are problems with the supply of skills, especially education-related skills, in the US labor force have exploded in recent years with a series of reports from employer-associated organizations but also from independent and even government sources making similar claims. These...

We build a general equilibrium model that features uninsurable idiosyncratic shocks, search frictions and an operative labor supply choice along the extensive margin. The model is calibrated to match the average levels of gross flows across the three labor market states: employment,...

The demographic transition a change from high to low rates of mortality and fertility has been more dramatic in East Asia during this century than in any other region or historical period. By introducing demographic variables into an empirical model of economic growth, this essay shows that this...

This paper estimates the effects on steady state retirement by men of changes in pension" plans and social security in the 1970's and 1980's. Work incentives associated with pension" coverage and plan characteristics are calculated primarily from the 1969-79 Retirement History" Study and the...

Increases in the proportion of the working age population can yield a "demographic dividend" that enhances the rate of economic growth. We estimate the parameters of an economic growth model with a cross section of countries over the period 1960 to 1980 and investigate whether the inclusion of...

This technical report presents the dynamic microsimulation model microWELT-US developed for US labour force projections accounting for education and health. microWELT-US is the adaptation of an existing microsimulation model for Europe. The microsimulation model supports a comparative analysis...

Using a highly stylized dynamic microsimulation model, we project the labor force of the United States up to the year 2060 and contrast these projections with projections for Germany to assess differential effects on outcomes The projections are consistent with the U S Census Bureau's and...

This paper explores the emergence of a world economy since 1950 and its implications for the world's labor force. There are four main sets of conclusions. First, although the integration of national economies since 1950 has been considerable, the world economy is still in its adolescence. Rapid...