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The US-China Bilateral Trade Balance : Its Size and Determinants
Feenstra, Robert C. - 1998
This paper has two aims. The first is to reduce the range within which the true U.S.-China bilateral trade deficit lies … revised US-China bilateral trade deficit is $15 billion to $20 billion in 1994, and $16 billion to $22 billion in 1995 … US-CHINA bilateral trade deficit in recent years reflected many factors. In our opinion, the two chief factors are (i …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012472213
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The Continuing Puzzle of Short Horizon Exchange Rate Forecasting
Rogoff, Kenneth S. - 2008
Are structural models getting closer to being able to forecast exchange rates at short horizons? Here we argue that misinterpretation of some new out-of-sample tests for nested models, over-reliance on asymptotic test statistics, and failure to sufficiently check robustness to alternative time...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012464525
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Explaining the Effects of Government Spending Shocks on Consumption and the Real Exchange Rate
Ravn, Morten O. - 2007
Using panel structural VAR analysis and quarterly data from four industrialized countries, we document that an increase in government purchases leads to an expansion in output and private consumption, a deterioration in the trade balance, and a depreciation of the real exchange rate (i.e., a...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012465322
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Productivity, External Balance and Exchange Rates : Evidence on the Transmission Mechanism Among G7 Countries
Corsetti, Giancarlo - 2006
This paper investigates the international transmission of productivity shocks in a sample of five G7 countries. For each country, using long-run restrictions, we identify shocks that increase permanently domestic labor productivity in manufacturing (our measure of tradables) relative to an...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012466182
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Interest Rates, Exchange Rates and International Adjustment
Dooley, Michael P. - 2005
In this paper we examine the behavior of interest rates and exchange rates following a variety of shocks to the international monetary system. Our analysis suggests that real interest rates in the US and Europe will remain low relative to historical experience for an extended period but converge...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012466900
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The Dollar and the Trade Deficit in the 1980s : A Personal View
Feldstein, Martin - 1993
The sharp gyrations of the dollar and of the trade deficit in the 1980s were among the most novel and least understood economic developments of the decade. This paper, which was written as part of the NBER project on American economic policy in the 1980s, examines the reasons for the dollar's...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012474634
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Globalization, Trade Imbalances and Inequality
Carneiro, Rafael Dix; Traiberman, Sharon - National Bureau of Economic Research - 2022
We investigate the role of trade imbalances for the distributional consequences of globalization. We do so through the lens of a quantitative, general equilibrium, multi-country, multi-sector model of trade with four key ingredients: (a) workers with different levels of skills are organized into...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013334406
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Assessing China's Exchange Rate Regime
Frankel, Jeffrey A. - 2007
China and America's other trading partners manipulate their exchange rates, and (b) the nature of the Chinese exchange rate … bilateral deficit, though other variables also turn out to be quite important. On the issue of China's de facto exchange rate …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012465554
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The Impacts of Renminbi Appreciation on Trades Flows and Reserve Accumulation in a Monetary Trade Model
Wang, Li - 2007
Given the rapidly growing reserves in Asia (China, Japan, Korea, Taiwan) and the pressures from trading partners to …, and that changes in trade flows can be substantial. Different treatments of China's processing trade have small impact on … changes in China's trade flow under RMB appreciation, but significant impacts on the change in the surplus. Results are …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012465061
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The Dynamics of the U.S. Trade Balance and Real Exchange Rate : The J Curve and Trade Costs?
Alessandria, George A. - 2019
We study how changes in trade barriers contributed to the dynamics of the US trade balance and real exchange rate since 1980 - a period when trade tripled. Using two dynamic trade models, we decompose fluctuations in the trade balance into terms related to trade integration (global and...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012479517