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Forecasting currencies with commodity prices -- Commodity prices, commodity currencies, and global economic developments / Jan J. J. Groen and Paolo A. Pesenti -- Comments: Kalok Chan, Roberto S. Mariano -- The relationship between commodity prices and currency exchange rates: evidence from the...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10008909722
The origins of stagflation and the possibility of its recurrence continue to be an important concern among policymakers and in the popular press. It is common to associate the origins of the Great Stagflation of the 1970s with the two major oil price increases of 1973/74 and 1979/80. This paper...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012471228
world rate of interest(intertemporal terms of trade effects) and, for rigid wages, changes in employment. Thus Industria … gains from the intertemporal terms of trade effect if it is a net borrower and the world rate of interest falls. Precise … conditions for whether the world rate of interest falls or rises are given.We also show that Industria may gain from subsidizing …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012478029
whether the U.S. share of world oil imports is more or less than its share of OPEC asset holdings; in the long run, whether …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012478581
post-World-War-II oil shocks reviewed include the Suez Crisis of 1956-57, the OPEC oil embargo of 1973-1974, the Iranian …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012461867
episodes include the 1929 stock market crash, the 1973 oil shock, the 2007 U.S. subprime collapse and fifteen severe post-World …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012462322
, the real price of oil has tended to be highly persistent and volatile whenever rapid industrialization in a major world …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012463721
In this paper we argue that the persistent global imbalances, the subprime crisis, and the volatile oil and asset prices that followed it, are tightly interconnected. They all stem from a global environment where sound and liquid financial assets are in scarce supply
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012464126
This paper examines the factors responsible for changes in crude oil prices. The paper reviews the statistical behavior of oil prices, relates these to the predictions of theory, and looks in detail at key features of petroleum demand and supply. Topics discussed include the role of commodity...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012464155
reduce taxes on labor income, showing that such a policy could increase world productive capacity while being consistent with …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012464854