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This paper examines the potential influence of changing volatility in stock market prices on the level of stock market … prices. It demonstrates that volatility is only weakly serially correlated, implying that shocks to volatility do not persist …. These shocks can therefore have only a small impact on stockmarket prices, since changes in volatility affect expected …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012477626
) levels of volatility. These results provide a novel perspective on both the equity risk premium and excess volatility puzzles …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012481562
introduce a model for asset return dynamics with a drift component, a volatility component and mutually exciting jumps known as …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012462802
mean and volatility of aggregate consumption growth, by a representative agent with a high elasticity of intertemporal … increasing the persistence of volatility fluctuations and their impact on stock prices. This calibration fits the predictive … power of stock prices for future consumption volatility, but implies much greater predictive power of stock prices for …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012463859
volatility literature, namely its relative neglect of the connection between macroeconomic fundamentals and asset return … volatility. We progress by analyzing a broad international cross section of stock markets covering approximately forty countries …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012464380
formulate and examine precise and separate measures of return spillovers and volatility spillovers. Our framework facilitates … evidence of divergent behavior in the dynamics of return spillovers vs. volatility spillovers: Return spillovers display a … gently increasing trend but no bursts, whereas volatility spillovers display no trend but clear bursts …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012464836
We characterize the joint dynamics of dividends, expected returns, stochastic volatility, and prices. In particular …, with a given dividend process, one of the processes of the expected return, the stock volatility, or the price …-dividend ratio fully determines the other two. For example, together with dividends, the stock volatility process fully determines …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012465813
We investigate a consumption-based present value relation that is a function of future dividend growth. Using data on aggregate consumption and measures of the dividend payments from aggregate wealth, we show that changing forecasts of dividend growth make an important contribution to...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012469093
(volatility) increases and returns distributions are more skewed to the left. We also examine the relation between ex ante returns … and ex ante volatility. The relation between the one-year expected risk premium and expected risk is negative. However …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012470037
reservations about the impact of foreign speculators on both expected" returns and market volatility. We propose a cross … receipts country funds and other financial instruments, in an extranational market and market volatility in emerging equity … volatility and correlation are less robust." …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012472501