A long return history is useful in estimating the current equity premium even if the historical distribution has experienced structural breaks. The long series helps not only if the timing of breaks is uncertain but also if one believes that large shifts in the premium are unlikely or that the...

Using research designs patterned after randomized experiments, many recent economic studies examine outcome measures for treatment groups and comparison groups that are not randomly assigned. By using variation in explanatory variables generated by changes in state laws, government draft...

This paper suggests that the relevant question concerning unit root' in the U.S. real GNP time series pertains to the relative importance of difference-stationary and trend-stationary components. Various analytical approaches indicate than an accurate answer is not obtainable with existing data....

This paper introduces a class of statistical tests for the hypothesis that some feature of a data set is common to several variables. A feature is detected in a single series by a hypothesis test where the null is that it is absent, and the alternative is that it is present. Examples are serial...

A test for long-run memory that is robust to short-range dependence is developed. It is a simple extension of Mandelbrot's "range over standard deviation" or R/S statistic, for which the relevant asymptotic sampling theory is derived via functional central limit theory. This test is applied to...

This paper presents an empirical analysis of changes in individual earnings and hours over time. Using longitudinal data from three panel surveys,we catalogue the main features of the covariance structure of changes in earnings and hours. We then present an interpretation of these features in...

We introduce the concept of a triad census of a digraph arid show how it can be used to enumerate various types of subgraph configurations. We give the basic probabilities needed for computing means and variances for a triad census under the U-MAN distribution for digraphs. These concepts are...