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sharp increase in the incidence of long-term unemployment (LTU) during the Great Recession. We first show that compositional … shifts in demographics, occupation, industry, region, and the reason for unemployment jointly account for very little of the … model that allows for duration dependence in the exit rate from unemployment and for transitions between employment (E …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012458392
Recent work has demonstrated that existing solutions of the unemployment volatility puzzle are at odds with the …. Our model reproduces the observed fluctuations in unemployment because hiring a worker is a risky investment with long … therefore greatly declines, leading to a large decrease in job vacancies and an increase in unemployment of the same magnitude …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012938763
Every year has large demand and supply shifts associated with the seasons, regardless of the phase of the business cycle. Based on measures dating back to the 1940s, the seasonal shifts reject the hypotheses that demand shifts affect employment outcomes significantly more in recession years than...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012462299
The aggregate neoclassical growth model - with a labor income tax or "labor market distortion" that began growing at the end of 2007 as its only impulse - produces time series for aggregate labor usage, consumption, investment, and real GDP that closely resemble actual U.S. time series. Of...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012462971
foregone unemployment insurance about equally erode the rewards from retaining a job, or starting a new one …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012460070
Before 1979, unemployment insurance (UI) benefits were not treated as taxable income in the United States. Several … has had the predicted effect of reducing unemployment duration.The study uses data on a sample of persons that filed for … presents persuasive evidence of a tax effect on unemployment duration. The 1979 policy change is estimated to have reduced …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012477837
states of employment, unemployment, and non-participation. The determinants of actual household transitions are then … functions show that increased unemployment among married men has a sizeable short-run effect on both participation and …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012478409
This paper presents a model in which firms recruit both unemployed and employed workers by posting vacancies. Firms act monopsonistically and set wages to retain their existing workers as well as to attract new ones. The model differs from Burdett and Mortensen (1998) in that its assumptions...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012464892
, which was particularly strong in the second half of the 90s, is a major aspect of the downward trends in unemployment and … and the unemployment rate, because a nonparticipant who wants to work has (i) a higher probability of entering the labor … force (compared to other nonparticipants), and (ii) a higher probability of joining unemployment conditional on entering the …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012457415
We answer the question posed by the title by specifying and estimating a simple dynamic model of prices, wages, and short-run and long-run inflation expectations. The estimated model allows us to analyze the direct and indirect effects of product-market and labor-market shocks on prices and...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10014322804