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Predicting Insurance Demand from Risk Attitudes
Jaspersen, Johannes G. - 2019
Can measured risk attitudes and associated structural models predict insurance demand? In an experiment (n = 1,730), we …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012480452
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The Subprime Crisis and House Price Appreciation
Goetzmann, William N. - 2009
substantiates both supply and demand effects of past price trends in housing markets, particularly with respect to subprime mortgage …-loan collateral values may have affected both the demand and the supply of mortgages. Standard time series models using repeat …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012463316
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How Well Do Structural Demand Models Work? Counterfactual Predictions in School Choice
Pathak, Parag A. - 2017
Discrete choice demand models are widely used for counterfactual policy simulations, yet their out … choice models of school demand. In 2013, Boston Public Schools considered several new choice plans that differ in where …, suggesting that the choice models are indeed "structural." Our findings show that structural demand models can effectively …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012453696
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Demand Modeling, Forecasting, and Counterfactuals, Part I
Pathak, Parag A. - 2014
discrete choice models of demand compared to simpler alternatives. In 2013, Boston Public Schools (BPS) proposed alternative …. Pathak and Shi (2013) estimated discrete choice models of demand using families' historical choices and these demand models … of discrete choice models of demand in our context …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012458802
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DSGE Model-Based Forecasting of Non-modelled Variables
Schorfheide, Frank - 2009
This paper develops and illustrates a simple method to generate a DSGE model-based forecast for variables that do not explicitly appear in the model (non-core variables). We use auxiliary regressions that resemble measurement equations in a dynamic factor model to link the non-core variables to...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012463776
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A General Stochastic Volatility Model for the Pricing and Forecasting of Interest Rate Derivatives
Trolle, Anders B. - 2006
We develop a tractable and flexible stochastic volatility multi-factor model of the term structure of interest rates. It features correlations between innovations to forward rates and volatilities, quasi-analytical prices of zero-coupon bond options and dynamics of the forward rate curve, under...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012466328
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Real-Time Forecast Evaluation of DSGE Models with Stochastic Volatility
Diebold, Francis X. - 2016
Recent work has analyzed the forecasting performance of standard dynamic stochastic general equilibrium (DSGE) models, but little attention has been given to DSGE models that incorporate nonlinearities in exogenous driving processes. Against that background, we explore whether incorporating...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012456064
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The Effects of Website Provision on the Demand for German Women's Magazines
Kaiser, Ulrich - 2002
The effect of website provision on the demand for German women's magazines is analyzed using differentiated product … demand models estimated on panel data that cover the period 1990 2000. Descriptive evidence on the magazines' website … alternative econometric approaches to identify the demand model. A counter-factual analysis shows, however, that online magazines …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012469909
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Simulated Likelihood Estimation of Diffusions with an Application to Exchange Rate Dynamics in Incomplete Markets
Brandt, Michael W. - 2001
We present an econometric method for estimating the parameters of a diffusion model from discretely sampled data. The estimator is transparent, adaptive, and inherits the asymptotic properties of the generally unattainable maximum likelihood estimator. We use this method to estimate a new...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012470313
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Answering the Queen : Machine Learning and Financial Crises
Fouliard, Jeremy - 2020
Financial crises cause economic, social and political havoc. Macroprudential policies are gaining traction but are still severely under-researched compared to monetary policy and fiscal policy. We use the general framework of sequential predictions also called online machine learning to forecast...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012482520