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Policymakers' Uncertainty
Cieślak, Anna; Hansen, Stephen; McMahon, Michael; … - National Bureau of Economic Research - 2023
Uncertainty is a ubiquitous concern emphasized by policymakers. We study how uncertainty affects decision-making by the …-managed uncertainty introduces a wedge between the standard Taylor-type policy rule and the optimal decision. Using private Fed …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10014436980
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Organizational Decision Making Under Uncertainty Shocks
Ballesteros, Luis - 2018
In line with the fallacy of riskification of uncertainty by which decision makers believe that the effects of … institutional theory that points to stakeholder and institutional dynamics affecting economic incentives to invest in prevention and … business continuity. Taken together, this article offers the foundation for a behaviorally plausible, decision …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012480579
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Cognitive Uncertainty in Intertemporal Choice
Enke, Benjamin; Graeber, Thomas Wilhelm - National Bureau of Economic Research - 2021
when a decision is complex, they implicitly treat different time delays to some degree alike. By experimentally measuring … when the decision environment is more complex. Third, cognitive uncertainty matters for choice architecture: people who are …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012794605
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Parameter Learning in General Equilibrium : The Asset Pricing Implications
Collin-Dufresne, Pierre - 2013
Parameter learning strongly amplifies the impact of macro shocks on marginal utility when the representative agent has a preference for early resolution of uncertainty. This occurs as rational belief updating generates subjective long-run consumption risks. We consider general equilibrium models...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012458957
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Trade Uncertainty and U.S. Bank Lending
Correa, Ricardo; Di Giovanni, Julian; Goldberg, Linda S.; … - National Bureau of Economic Research - 2023
This paper uses U.S. loan-level credit register data and the 2018-2019 Trade War to test for the effects of international trade uncertainty on domestic credit supply. We exploit cross-sectional heterogeneity in banks' ex-ante exposure to trade uncertainty and find that an increase in trade...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10014436991
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Minimax-Regret Climate Policy with Deep Uncertainty in Climate Modeling and Intergenerational Discounting
DeCanio, Stephen J.; Manski, Charles F.; Sanstad, Alan H. - National Bureau of Economic Research - 2022
) decision criterion to account for deep uncertainty in climate modeling. Here we study choice of climate policy that minimizes … analysis points to use of a relatively low discount rate of 0.02 for climate policy. The MMR decision rule keeps the maximum …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012938685
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Financial Innovation, the Discovery of Risk, and the U.S. Credit Crisis
Boz, Emine - 2010
Financial innovation and overconfidence about asset values and the riskiness of new financial products were important factors behind the U.S. credit crisis. We show that a boom-bust cycle in debt, asset prices and consumption characterizes the equilibrium dynamics of a model with a collateral...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012462633
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Investment and Subjective Uncertainty
Bloom, Nicholas; Davis, Steven J.; Foster, Lucia; … - National Bureau of Economic Research - 2022
A longstanding challenge in evaluating the impact of uncertainty on investment is obtaining measures of managers' subjective uncertainty. We address this challenge by using a detailed new survey measure of subjective uncertainty collected by the U.S. Census Bureau for approximately 25,000...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013462702
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Financial Regret at Older Ages and Longevity Awareness
Hurwitz, Abigail; Mitchell, Olivia S. - National Bureau of Economic Research - 2022
Older people often express regret about financial decisions made earlier in life that left them susceptible to old-age insecurity. Prior work has explored one outcome, saving regret, or peoples' expressed wish that they had saved more earlier in life. The present paper extends attention to five...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013462744
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Pandemic-Era Uncertainty
Meyer, Brent H.; Mihaylov, Emil; Barrero, Jose Maria; … - National Bureau of Economic Research - 2022
We examine several measures of uncertainty to make five points. First, equity market traders and executives at nonfinancial firms have shared similar assessments about one-year-ahead uncertainty since the pandemic struck. Both the one-year VIX and our survey-based measure of firm-level...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013191053