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general election is an endogenous policy variable in a parliamentary system. Thus, one of the interesting questions in a …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012475917
before the election. Our empirical results suggest that our model performs at least as well and often better than alternative …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012476355
Prior to elections, governments (at all levels) frequently undertake a consumption binge. Taxes are cut, transfers are raised, and government spending is distorted towards highly visible items. The "political business cycle" (better be thought of as "the political budget cycle") has been...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012476639
The 1896 presidential election between William Jennings Bryan and William McKinley has gained new salience in the wake … indicate that bank entry would have had to be very significantly slower to tip the election. There is no question that economic … election …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012453782
The introduction of a new real estate taxes in Italy in 2011 generated a natural experiment, which is useful to test political budget cycles, i.e. the strategic choice of fiscal variables in relation to elections. We do find substantial evidence of political budget cycles, with municipalities...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012458095
this paper we develop a unique micro-dataset on public works procurement from two fast-growing economies, India and … Indonesia, and use regional and time variation in the adoption of e-procurement across both countries to examine its impact. We … improvements. In India, where we observe an independent measure of construction quality, e-procurement improves the average road …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012458323
, subsequent elections. Since both candidates lost the election and had similar electoral performance, this is the effect of being …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012458405
We examine the effect of regime change on privatization using the 2004 election surprise in India. The pro-reform BJP …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012465222
This paper tests the existence and the extent of a politically induced business cycle in the U.S. in the post-World War II period. The cycle described in this paper is different from the traditional "political business cycle" of Nordhaus. It is based on a systematic difference between the...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012477132
There is an extensive empirical literature on political business cycles, but its theoretical foundations are grounded in pre-rational expectations macroeconomic theory. Here we show that electoral cycles in taxes, government spending and money growth can be modeled as an equilibrium signaling...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012477238