framework that allowed the high inflation of the 1970s. Second, I consider whether models of inflation determination with no … monetary policy strategy of the empirical evidence for a long-run relationship between money growth and inflation. And fourth …, I consider reasons why a monetary policy strategy based solely on short-run inflation forecasts derived from a Phillips …

helps explain the well known puzzle that fundamental variables such as relative money supplies, outputs, inflation and …

Japan suffered a very high inflation rate in 1973-74. The CPI inflation rate rose to near 30% in 1974, the highest rate …, the oil crisis is blamed for the 1973-74 high inflation. However, due to monetary policy decisions in 1972-73, the … inflation rate had already exceeded 10% before the onset of the oil crisis in October 1973. These decisions include the interest …

A standard statistical perspective on the U.S. Great Inflation is that it involves an increase in the stochastic trend … rate of inflation, defined as the long-term forecast of inflation at each point in time. That perspective receives support …, and statistical studies of U.S. inflation dynamics. We show that a textbook macroeconomic model delivers such a stochastic …

stable inflation behavior will be generated -- is incorrect. This is because New Keynesian (NK) models are typically … consistent with the existence of RE paths with explosive inflation rates (in addition to one or more stable paths) that normally … imply the absence of explosive inflation. That result does not, however, justify negative conclusions about NK analysis. For …

This paper examines the association between inflation, monetary policy and U.S. stock market conditions during the … episodes and find evidence that inflation and interest rate shocks had particularly strong impacts on market conditions in the … postwar era. Disinflation shocks promoted market booms and inflation shocks contributed to busts. We conclude that central …

an inflation surprise and the nominal exchange rate can tell us something about how monetary policy is conducted …. Specifically, we show that 'bad news' about inflation -- that it is higher than expected -- can be 'good news' for the nominal … exchange rate -- that it appreciates on this news -- if the central bank has an inflation target that it implements with a …

This paper analyzes the long-run determinants of inflation differentials in a monetary union. First, we aim at …some stylized facts relating the regional dispersion in headline inflation rates in the euro area as well as in the …-traded sector as the primary cause of price and inflation differentials, with shocks to productivity in the traded sector being …

The fiscal theory states that inflation adjusts so that the real value of government debt equals the present value of … determines the path of expected inflation, while news about the present value of surpluses drives unexpected inflation. I use … fiscal theory to interpret historical episodes, including the rise and fall of inflation in the 1970s and 1980s, the long …

inflation, with emphasis on the role of oil shocks and accommodative monetary policy. The model features oil as a complementary … VAR. We then show that our model does a good job of explaining unemployment and inflation since 2010, including the recent … inflation surge that began in mid 2021. We show that mainly accounting for this surge was a combination oil price shocks and …