measure of aggregate technology and several forward-looking variables, we identify the news shock as the shock orthogonal to … frequency variation in technology. News shocks are positively correlated with consumption, stock price, and consumer confidence …

prices, consumption, consumer confidence and inflation, robustly predict three outcomes. First, following a news shock, TFP … answer to this question using semi-structural VARs, where "news" is defined as the innovation in the expectation of TFP at a …. Third, there is a sharp increase in a forward-looking measure of consumer confidence. Consumption typically rises following …

the period 1969 to 2008. All news measures suggest that most components of consumption fall after a positive shock to …Do shocks to government spending raise or lower consumption and real wages? Standard VAR identification approaches show … a rise in consumption even when it decreases in the model. Motivated by the importance of measuring anticipations, I …

in government purchases leads to an expansion in output and private consumption, a deterioration in the trade balance … fit well the observed responses of output, consumption, the trade balance, and the real exchange rate to an unanticipated … government spending shock. In addition, the deep-habit model predicts that in response to an anticipated increase in government …

We assess the degree of consumption smoothing implicit in a calibrated life-cycle version of the standard incomplete … the model have access to less consumption-smoothing against permanent earnings shocks than what is measured in the data …. BPP estimate that 36% of permanent shocks are insurable (i.e., do not translate into consumption growth), whereas the …