the period 1969 to 2008. All news measures suggest that most components of consumption fall after a positive shock to …Do shocks to government spending raise or lower consumption and real wages? Standard VAR identification approaches show … a rise in consumption even when it decreases in the model. Motivated by the importance of measuring anticipations, I …

in government purchases leads to an expansion in output and private consumption, a deterioration in the trade balance … fit well the observed responses of output, consumption, the trade balance, and the real exchange rate to an unanticipated … government spending shock. In addition, the deep-habit model predicts that in response to an anticipated increase in government …

We assess the degree of consumption smoothing implicit in a calibrated life-cycle version of the standard incomplete … the model have access to less consumption-smoothing against permanent earnings shocks than what is measured in the data …. BPP estimate that 36% of permanent shocks are insurable (i.e., do not translate into consumption growth), whereas the …

-announcement times. We use a heteroskedasticity-based procedure to estimate a "Fed non-yield shock", which is orthogonal to yield changes … and is identified from excess volatility in the S&P 500 and various dollar exchange rates. A positive non-yield shock …-yield shock is essentially uncorrelated with previous monetary policy shocks and its effects are large in comparison. Its strong …

model forecast errors over time and across countries. We conclude with investment implications, where shocks to systematic …