This paper asks whether a textbook Phillips curve can explain the behavior of core inflation in the euro area. A … critical feature of the analysis is that we measure core inflation with the weighted median of industry inflation rates, which … is less volatile than the common measure of inflation excluding food and energy prices. We find that fluctuations in core …

Sticky-price models with rational expectations fail to capture the inertia in U.S. inflation. Models with backward …-looking expectations capture current inflation behavior, but are unlikely to fit other monetary regimes. This paper seeks to overcome these … problems with a near-rational model of expectations. In the model, agents make univariate forecasts of inflation: they use …

The paper provides an integrated analysis of globalization effects on the inflation-output tradeoff and monetary policy … flatten the Phillips curve, the tradeoff between inflation and activity. Second, the same globalization forces lead the … welfare-based monetary policy to be more aggressive with regard to inflation fluctuations, and at the same time, more benign …

inflation expectations. We develop this measure using assumptions common in economic analysis of open economies. Using quarterly …

This paper studies the relationship between inflation, output, money and interest rates in the euro area, using data … power for future inflation. The real money gap contains more information about future inflation than the output gap and the … Eurosystem's money-growth indicator is an inferior indicator of future inflation …

inflation and persistence in output. The key features of our model are those that prevent a sharp rise in marginal costs after …

helps explain the well known puzzle that fundamental variables such as relative money supplies, outputs, inflation and …

This paper analyzes the long-run determinants of inflation differentials in a monetary union. First, we aim at …some stylized facts relating the regional dispersion in headline inflation rates in the euro area as well as in the …-traded sector as the primary cause of price and inflation differentials, with shocks to productivity in the traded sector being …