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The projected path of the U.S. national debt is the major challenge facing American economic policy. Without changes in tax and spending rules, the national debt will rise from 62 percent of GDP now to more than 100 percent of GDP by the end of the decade and nearly twice that level within 25...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012462206
This paper develops a political-economic model of fiscal policy one in which" government resources are a common property' out of which interest groups can finance" expenditures on their preferred items. This setup has striking macroeconomic implications. " First, fiscal deficits and debt...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012472479
Past government spending in Japan is currently imposing a significant fiscal burden that is reflected in a net debt to output ratio near 150 percent. In addition, the aging of Japanese society implies that public expenditures and transfers payments relative to output are projected to continue to...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012459229
by asset price bubbles, large capital inflows and credit booms, in rich and poor countries alike …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012464062
This paper investigates the nature and the presence of bubbles in financial markets. Are bubbles consistent with … are some of the questions asked in the first three sections. The general conclusion is that bubbles, in many markets, are … consistent with rationality, that phenomena such as runaway asset prices and market crashes are consistent with rational bubbles …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012478162
-selling constraints, speculation can generate over- valuation and speculative bubbles. Leverage can substantially inflate speculative … bubbles and leverage limits depend on perceived downside risks. Shifts in beliefs about downside tail scenarios can explain … the emergence and the collapse of leveraged speculative bubbles. Speculative bubbles are related to rational bubbles, but …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012482642
We explore a view of the crisis as a shock to investor sentiment that led to the collapse of a bubble or pyramid scheme in financial markets. We embed this view in a standard model of the financial accelerator and explore its empirical and policy implications. In particular, we show how the...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012462257
We develop a stylized model of economic growth with bubbles. In this model, financial frictions lead to equilibrium … dispersion in the rates of return to investment. During bubbly episodes, unproductive investors demand bubbles while productive … dynamically inefficient: otherwise, there would be no demand for bubbles. This dynamic inefficiency, however, might be generated …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012462780
An iconic model with high leverage and overvalued collateral assets is used to illustrate the amplification mechanism driving asset prices to 'overshoot' equilibrium when an asset bubble bursts--threatening widespread insolvency and what Richard Koo calls a 'balance sheet recession'
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012462797
supporting the resale option theory of bubbles: investors overpay for a warrant hoping to resell it at an even higher price to a …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012463168