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Past government spending in Japan is currently imposing a significant fiscal burden that is reflected in a net debt to output ratio near 150 percent. In addition, the aging of Japanese society implies that public expenditures and transfers payments relative to output are projected to continue to...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012459229
The end of the great moderation has profound implications on the assessment of fiscal sustainability. The pertinent issue goes beyond the obvious increase in the stock of public debt/GDP induced by the global recession, to include the neglected perspective that the vulnerabilities associated...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012462179
The projected path of the U.S. national debt is the major challenge facing American economic policy. Without changes in tax and spending rules, the national debt will rise from 62 percent of GDP now to more than 100 percent of GDP by the end of the decade and nearly twice that level within 25...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012462206
This paper develops a political-economic model of fiscal policy one in which" government resources are a common property' out of which interest groups can finance" expenditures on their preferred items. This setup has striking macroeconomic implications. " First, fiscal deficits and debt...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012472479
by asset price bubbles, large capital inflows and credit booms, in rich and poor countries alike …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012464062
debt is equivalent to the allocations that are sustained with unbacked public debt or rational bubbles; for the latter …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012466047
This paper incorporates a bubble term in the standard FTPL equation to explain why countries with persistently negative primary surpluses can have a positively valued currency and low inflation. It also provides an example with closed-form solutions in which idiosyncratic risk on capital returns...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012481699
will be optimal varies from one type of bubble to another and, for certain bubbles, from one period to the next. It is …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012467580
Considerable debate rages about whether Federal Reserve policy was too lax in the early part of the 2000s, thereby fueling the home-price bubble that was the proximate cause of the global financial crisis. We present evidence that the view that modest alterations to monetary policy have vast...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012461842
We explore a view of the crisis as a shock to investor sentiment that led to the collapse of a bubble or pyramid scheme in financial markets. We embed this view in a standard model of the financial accelerator and explore its empirical and policy implications. In particular, we show how the...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012462257