We show that "commodity currency" exchange rates have remarkably robust power in predicting global commodity prices, both in-sample and out-of-sample, and against a variety of alternative benchmarks. This result is of particular interest to policymakers, given the lack of deep forward markets in...

This paper, written as a chapter for a Handbook of International Economics, reviews developments in the theory of international monetary economics from the late 1960's through the early 1980's. Following a review of the operation of the monetary mechanism of balance of payments adjustment in the...

This paper offers empirical evidence that real exchange rate volatility can have a significant impact on long-term rate of productivity growth, but the effect depends critically on a country's level of financial development. For countries with relatively low levels of financial development,...

Exchange rates depreciate by the difference between the domestic and foreign marginal utility growths. Exchange rates vary a lot , as much as 10% per year. However, equity premia imply that marginal utility growths vary much more, by at least 50% per year. This means that marginal utility...

This paper analyzes the effects of money injections on interest rates and exchange rates in a model in which agents must pay a Baumol-Tobin style fixed cost to exchange bonds and money. Asset markets are endogenously segmented because this fixed cost leads agents to trade bonds and money only...

This paper investigates the relationship between international capital liberalization and exchange rate volatility. While the effects of a capital controls liberalization on the transaction volume in the foreign exchange market are theoretically unambiguous, the effects on the volatility of...

This paper presents a two-country extension of Lucas' (1988) work on the effects of cash-in-advance constraints in asset markets on the pricing of financial assets. The model is one where there exists some degree of separation between the goods markets and the asset markets and money is used for...

We examine the connection between exchange rates and foreign direct investment that arises when globally integrated capital markets are subject to informational imperfections. These imperfections cause external financing to be more expensive than internal financing, so that changes in wealth...

In discussions about different international monetary arrangements it is often maintained that exchange rate variability has a negative influence on international trade and foreign investment. This paper addresses one specific aspect of this general issue, namely the effect of exchange rate...

Accounting for the pervasive evidence of limited international risk sharing is an important hurdle for open-economy models, especially when these are adopted in the analysis of policy trade-offs likely to be affected by imperfections in financial markets. Key to the literature is the evidence,...