The impact of shocks in dynamic environments depends on how forward-looking agents anticipate the path of future fundamentals that shape their decisions. We incorporate flexible beliefs about future fundamentals in a general class of dynamic spatial models, allowing beliefs to be evolving,...

Recent work documents declining business dynamism in the United States, with concerning implications for markups, innovation and productivity. Using import data for 146 countries over three decades we document a set of new stylized facts describing market dynamism world-wide. Market entry rates...

This paper generalizes the original Brander and Taylor model of open-access renewable resource use and trade to address three common critiques. First, I introduce heterogeneity across agents in harvesting productivity to smooth out the model's extreme specialization patterns while maintaining...

Until the beginning of this century, the GATT/WTO system worked. Economic research provided a compelling explanation. It showed that if governments maximize the well-being of their own countries broadly defined, GATT/WTO principles would facilitate mutually beneficial cooperation over their...

We provide a spatial theory of clean growth to assess the global impact of the rise of renewable energy. We model the details of the combined production and transmission network of electricity ("the grid") that determine the supply and losses of energy in space. The local rate of clean energy...

We review theoretical and empirical work on the economic effects of the United States and China trade relations during the last decades. We first discuss the origins of the China shock, its measurement, and present methods used to study its economic effects on different outcomes. We then focus...

What are the long-run effects of permanent changes to the economy? We characterize long-run comparative statics for a broad class of models in terms of expenditure shares, substitution elasticities, and capital supply elasticities. Our key insight is that long-run analysis can be performed using...

This paper draws on cross-country census data to study how agricultural productivity gaps have evolved over the last four decades. We find little tendency for gaps to decline on average despite global decreases in agricultural employment shares. We analyze the dynamics of agricultural...

Firm-to-firm connections in domestic and international production networks play a fundamental role in economic outcomes. Firm heterogeneity and the sparse nature of firm-to-firm connections implicitly discipline network structure. We find that a large group of well-established statistical...

This paper develops a new model with heterogeneous firms under perfect competition in a Heckscher-Ohlin-Samuelson setting. We show that trade need not make selection in the comparative advantage sector stricter as suggested by earlier work. Selection is driven by the capital intensity in entry...