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Bonus Question : Does Flexible Incentive Pay Dampen Unemployment Dynamics?

Gaur, Meghana; Grigsby, John R.; Hazell, Jonathon; … - National Bureau of Economic Research - 2023

We introduce dynamic incentive contracts into a model of unemployment dynamics and present three results. First, wage … cyclicality from incentives does not dampen unemployment dynamics: the response of unemployment to shocks is first … cyclicality from bargaining dampens unemployment dynamics through the standard mechanism. Third, our calibrated model suggests 46 …

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10014372479

Moral Hazard and Unemployment in Competitive Equilibrium

Rey, Patrick; Stiglitz, Joseph E. - National Bureau of Economic Research - 2024

, that frictions (sand-in-the-wheels) may decrease unemployment and that the equilibrium is determined by two simple …

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10014635663

The Labor Market Impacts of Technological Change : From Unbridled Enthusiasm to Qualified Optimism to Vast Uncertainty

Autor, David H. - National Bureau of Economic Research - 2022

This review considers the evolution of economic thinking on the relationship between digital technology and inequality across four decades, encompassing four related but intellectually distinct paradigms, which I refer to as the education race, the task polarization model, the...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013210102

Capital and Wages

Acemoglu, Daron - National Bureau of Economic Research - 2024

Does capital accumulation increase labor demand and wages? Neoclassical production functions, where capital and labor are q-complements, ensure that the answer is yes, so long as labor markets are competitive. This result critically depends on the assumption that capital accumulation does not...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10014512044

Scenarios for the Transition to AGI

Korinek, Anton; Suh, Donghyun - National Bureau of Economic Research - 2024

We analyze how output and wages behave under different scenarios for technological progress that may culminate in Artificial General Intelligence (AGI), defined as the ability of AI systems to perform all tasks that humans can perform. We assume that human work can be decomposed into atomistic...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10014512109

Measuring the Commercial Potential of Science

Masclans, Roger; Hasan, Sharique; Cohen, Wesley M. - National Bureau of Economic Research - 2024

This paper uses a large language model to develop an ex-ante measure of the commercial potential of scientific findings. In addition to validating the measure against the typical holdout sample, we validate it externally against 1.) the progression of scientific findings through a major...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10014512116

Anatomy of Technology and Tasks in the Establishment

Cirera, Xavier; Comin, Diego; Cruz, Marcio José Vargas da - National Bureau of Economic Research - 2024

We construct a grid that covers the key business functions of an establishment and the main technologies used in each of them. We populate this grid with data from over 20,000 establishments in 15 countries. We use this dataset to document novel "facts" about how establishments use technology,...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10014512135

Artificial Intelligence and the Skill Premium

Bloom, David E.; Prettner, Klaus; Saadaoui, Jamel; … - National Bureau of Economic Research - 2024

How will the emergence of ChatGPT and other forms of artificial intelligence (AI) affect the skill premium? To address this question, we propose a nested constant elasticity of substitution production function that distinguishes among three types of capital: traditional physical capital...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10014544709

The Simple Macroeconomics of AI

Acemoglu, Daron - National Bureau of Economic Research - 2024

This paper evaluates claims about large macroeconomic implications of new advances in AI. It starts from a task-based model of AI's effects, working through automation and task complementarities. So long as AI's microeconomic effects are driven by cost savings/productivity improvements at the...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10014544765

Automation and Rent Dissipation : Implications for Wages, Inequality, and Productivity

Acemoglu, Daron; Restrepo, Pascual - National Bureau of Economic Research - 2024

This paper studies the effects of automation in economies with labor market distortions that generate worker rents--wages above opportunity cost--in some jobs. We show that automation targets high-rent tasks, dissipating rents and amplifying wage losses from automation. It also reduces...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10014576564

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