The fiscal theory states that inflation adjusts so that the real value of government debt equals the present value of … determines the path of expected inflation, while news about the present value of surpluses drives unexpected inflation. I use … fiscal theory to interpret historical episodes, including the rise and fall of inflation in the 1970s and 1980s, the long …

This paper studies the implications of central bank credibility for long-run inflation and inflation dynamics. We … competitive firms. Inflation is driven by the interaction of lack of commitment and the economic environment. We show that long …-run inflation increases following an unanticipated permanent increase in the labor wedge or decrease in the elasticity of …

This paper studies people's understanding of inflation--their perceived causes, consequences, trade-offs--and the … views align with established economic theories. Our key findings show that the major perceived causes of inflation include … negative consequences of inflation but the most noted one is the increased complexity and difficulty in household decision …

marginal costs and inflation. As workers climb the job ladder, reducing slack in the employment pool, the inflation effect …, unemployment and inflation to aggregate shocks. The ratio between job-finding probabilities from job-to-job and from unemployment …, a measure of the "Acceptance rate" of job offers to employed workers, predicts negatively inflation, independently of …

U.S. inflation has recently surged, with inflation reaching its highest readings since the early 1980s. We examine the … drivers of this rise in inflation, focusing on supply chain disruptions, labor supply constraints, and their interaction … endogenous markups, we find that supply chain disruptions combined with a rise in the disutility of work raised inflation by …

How costly is inflation to workers? Answers to this question have focused on the path of real wages during inflationary … periods. We argue that workers must take costly actions ("conflict") to have nominal wages catch up with inflation, meaning … there are welfare costs even if real wages do not fall as inflation rises. We study a menu-cost style model, where workers …

treatment of globalization can help. CPI inflation has become more synchronized around the world since the 2008 crisis, but core … role for all the inflation measures, although globalization has caused some "flattening" of this relationship, especially …Inflation dynamics have been difficult to explain over the last decade. This paper explores if a more comprehensive …

The paper provides an integrated analysis of globalization effects on the inflation-output tradeoff and monetary policy … flatten the Phillips curve, the tradeoff between inflation and activity. Second, the same globalization forces lead the … welfare-based monetary policy to be more aggressive with regard to inflation fluctuations, and at the same time, more benign …

inflation and activity. If policy makers are guided by the welfare criterion of the representative household, globalization …The paper provides a unified analysis of globalization effects on the Phillips curve and monetary policy, in a New … forces also lead monetary policy to be more aggressive with regard to inflation fluctuations but, at the same time, more …