Foreign investors' changing appetite for risk-taking have been shown to be a key determinant of the global financial cycle. Such fluctuations in risk sentiment also correlate with the dynamics of UIP premia, capital flows, and exchange rates. To understand how these risk sentiment changes...

Frequent, yet uninformed, fund flows in Chilean pension plans generate substantial trading in currency markets due to the high allocation to international securities. These non-fundamental flows have a significant impact on the Chilean peso, which is estimated to have a relatively low price...

How does the conduct of optimal cross-border financial policy change with prevailing trade agreements? We study the joint optimal determination of trade policy and capital- flow management in a two-country, two-good model with trade in goods and assets. While the cooperative optimal allocation...

We re-examine monetary policy spillovers to Emerging Market Economies (EME) in the form of capital flow reversals, using sectoral-level securities holdings data for Euro Area investors. In response to a surprise monetary tightening, active investors such as investment funds re-balance their...

This paper develops a framework to study the management of international reserves when a government faces the risk of a rollover crisis. In the model, it is optimal for the government to reduce its vulnerability by initially lowering debt, and then increasing both debt and reserves as it...

This paper investigates the implications of international financial sanctions for the reserve currency status of the US dollar. We propose a simple model of a reserve currency, demonstrate how the anticipation of financial sanctions can weaken the dollar's status, and evaluate the welfare...

We examine the determinants and the dynamics of the exchange rate pass-through of the Japanese exporters, utilizing the official Customs declaration data. We first estimated the invoicing currency exchange rate pass-through and found that export prices invoiced in producer currency are the most...

Many central banks whose exchange rate regimes are classified as flexible are reluctant to let the exchange rate fluctuate. This phenomenon is known as "fear of floating". We present a simple theory in which fear of floating emerges as an optimal policy outcome. The key feature of the model is...

By preemptive austerity, we mean a policy that increases taxes to deter potential rollover crises. The policy is so successful that the usual danger signal of a rollover crisis, a high yield on new bonds sold, does not show up because the policy eliminates the danger. Mechanically, high taxes...

We study the reasons for the large, coincident increases in unbalanced international trade and overall trade from 1970 to 2019. We show that these two salient features--a rise in net and gross international trade--are largely a consequence of a reduction in intratemporal trade barriers rather...