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Unemployment is low and inflation is falling, but consumer sentiment remains depressed. This has confounded economists … official inflation are strongly correlated with borrowing costs and consumer credit supply. Concerns over borrowing costs … alternative measures of inflation that include borrowing costs and can account for almost three quarters of the gap in US consumer …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10014486254
economic growth. This paper examines the roles of three other factors: primary budget surpluses, surprise inflation, and pegged … inflation and the pre-Accord peg. In this counterfactual, debt/GDP declines only to 74% in 1974, not 23% as in actual history …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10014337810
We use equity returns to construct a time-varying measure of the interest rate that we call the zero-beta rate: the expected return of a stock portfolio orthogonal to the stochastic discount factor. The zero-beta rate is high and volatile. In contrast to safe rates, the zero-beta rate fits the...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10014337830
industries. Meanwhile governments responded with unprecedented stimulus packages, and inflation increased to its highest values … in 40 years. In this paper I investigate the contribution of aggregate monetary and fiscal policies to inflation … heterogeneous supply curves, industry-specific shocks to inelastically supplied goods increase aggregate inflation through a cost …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10014512048
inflation, building on our earlier work for the United States. Globally, as in the United States, pandemic-era inflation was due … bank inflation targets. As the effects of supply shocks have subsided, tight labor markets, and the rises in nominal wages …, have become relatively more important sources of inflation in many countries. In several countries, including the United …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10014544809
We study how within-store price variation changes with inflation, and whether households exploit it to attenuate the … inflation burden. We use micro price data for food products sold by 91 large multi-channel retailers in ten countries between … discounts grew at a much lower average rate than regular prices, helping to mitigate the inflation burden. By contrast …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10014576655
We develop a framework to measure the welfare impact of inflationary shocks throughout the distribution. The first-order impact of a shock is summarized by the induced movements in agents' feasible sets: their budget constraint and borrowing constraints. To measure this impact, we combine...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10014250142
inflation in the 2020s. Economic slack is measured as firms' job vacancies over the number of unemployed workers. After showing …. Policy implications include the thesis that appropriate monetary policy can bring inflation down without a significant …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10014250214
This paper assesses the proximate causes of the post pandemic surge in US inflation, the Federal Reserve's real time …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10014337754
fraction of price changes increases with inflation. They also predict implausibly large menu costs and misallocation in the …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10014468294