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The Unemployment-Inflation Trade-off Revisited : The Phillips Curve in COVID Times

Crump, Richard K.; Eusepi, Stefano; Giannoni, Marc Paolo; … - National Bureau of Economic Research - 2022

We estimate the natural rate of unemployment, often referred to as u*, in the United States using data on labor market flows, short-term and long-term inflation expectations and a forward-looking New-Keynesian Phillips curve for the 1960-2021 period. The natural rate of unemployment was at...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012938754

Hysteresis in Unemployment : Evidence from OECD Estimates of the Natural Rate

Ball, Laurence M.; Onken, Joern - National Bureau of Economic Research - 2021

This paper studies the dynamics of unemployment (u) and its natural rate (u*), with u* measured by real-time estimates for 29 countries from the OECD. We find strong evidence of hysteresis: an innovation in u causes u* to change in the same direction, and therefore has permanent effects. For our...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012660021

Inflation, Flexible Exchange Rates, and the Natural Rate of Unemployment

Gordon, Robert J. - 1981

The most important conclusion of this paper is that the growth rate of the money supply influences the U.S. inflation rate more strongly and promptly than in most previous studies, because the flexible exchange rate system has introduced an additional channel of monetary impact, over and above...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012478407

Transfers, Taxes, and the NAIRU

Hamermesh, Daniel S. - 1980

Just as war is too important to be left to the generals, the impact of taxes and transfers on the aggregate unemployment rate is too important to be left to the macroeconomists. I therefore subject the issue of how tax and transfer policy affects unemployment and aggregate supply to a detailed,...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012478587

The Nature and Measurement of Unemployment

Hall, Robert E. - 1978

Problems of defining and measuring unemployemnt in the contemporary American economy are examined here using data from the official employment survey. The paper finds that only a minority of the unemployed conform to the conventional picture of a worker who has lost one job and is looking f or...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012478893

A Theory of the Natural Unemployment Rate and the Duration of Employment

Hall, Robert E. - 1978

In this paper, a theory of the natural or equilibrium rate of unemployment is built around a theory of the duration of employment. Evidence is presented that most unemployed workers became unemployed because their previous jobs came to an end; only a minority are on temporary layoff or have just...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012478894

Why Inflation Rose and Fell : Policymakers' Beliefs and US Postwar Stabilization Policy

Primiceri, Giorgio - 2005

This paper provides an explanation for the run-up of U.S. inflation in the 1960s and 1970s and the sharp disinflation in the early 1980s, which standard macroeconomic models have difficulties in addressing. I present a model in which rational policymakers learn about the behavior of the economy...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012467538

The NAIRU in Theory and Practice

Ball, Laurence - 2002

This paper discusses the NAIRU -- the non-accelerating inflation rate of unemployment. It first considers the role of … the NAIRU concept in business cycle theory, arguing that this concept is implicit in any model in which monetary policy … influences both inflation and unemployment. The exact value of the NAIRU is hard to measure, however, in part because it changes …

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012469774

The Fed and the New Economy

Ball, Laurence - 2002

down in the late 1990s. However, the Fed's behavior appears stable once one accounts for the falling NAIRU of the period. A … rule based on inflation and the deviation of unemployment from the NAIRU captures the Fed's behavior through the entire …

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012469930

Sticky Information : A Model of Monetary Nonneutrality and Structural Slumps

Mankiw, N. Gregory - 2001

This paper explores a model of wage adjustment based on the assumption that information disseminates slowly throughout the population of wage setters. This informational frictional yields interesting and plausible dynamics for employment and inflation in response to exogenous movements in...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012470102