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Large Language Models : An Applied Econometric Framework

Ludwig, Jens; Mullainathan, Sendhil; Rambachan, Ashesh - National Bureau of Economic Research - 2025

How can we use the novel capacities of large language models (LLMs) in empirical research? And how can we do so while accounting for their limitations, which are themselves only poorly understood? We develop an econometric framework to answer this question that distinguishes between two types of...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10015194989

Simple Estimators for the Parameters of Discrete Dynamic Games (with Entry/Exit Samples)

Pakes, Ariel - 2004

This paper considers the problem of estimating the distribution of payoffs in a discrete dynamic game, focusing on models where the goal is to learn about the distribution of firms' entry and exit costs. The idea is to begin with non parametric first stage estimates of entry and continuation...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012468187

The Role of Randomized Field Trials in Social Science Research : A Perspective from Evaluations of Reforms of Social Welfare Programs

Moffitt, Robert A. - 2003

One of the areas of policy research where randomized field trials have been utilized most intensively is welfare reform. Starting in the late 1960s with experimental tests of a negative income tax and continuing through current experimental tests of recent welfare reforms, randomized evaluations...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012468654

How Often to Sample a Continuous-Time Process in the Presence of Market Microstructure Noise

Ait-Sahalia, Yacine - 2003

optimal sampling frequency at which to estimate the parameters of a discretely sampled continuous-time model can be finite … that sampling as often as possible is optimal. But, more surprisingly, we also demonstrate that this is true even if one …

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012469087

Non-Randomly Sampled Networks : Biases and Corrections

Hsieh, Chih-sheng - 2018

first characterize the biases in both network statistics and estimates of network effects under non-random sampling …-classical measurement-error problems when applied as regressors. Apart from the sampling rate and the elicitation procedure, these biases … applied to network data collected via both designed and non-designed sampling procedures, does not require one to assume any …

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012480921

Expanding the Measurement of Culture with a Sample of Two Billion Humans

Obradovich, Nick - 2020

Culture has played a pivotal role in human evolution. Yet, the ability of social scientists to study culture is limited by the currently available measurement instruments. Scholars of culture must regularly choose between scalable but sparse survey-based methods or restricted but rich...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012481130

Using Split Samples to Improve Inference about Causal Effects

Fafchamps, Marcel - 2016

We discuss a method aimed at reducing the risk that spurious results are published. Researchers send their datasets to an independent third party who randomly generates training and testing samples. Researchers perform their analysis on the former and once the paper is accepted for publication...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012456829

Sample-selection biases and the “industrialization puzzle”

Bodenhorn, Howard - 2015

Understanding long-term changes in human well-being is central to understanding the consequences of economic development. An extensive anthropometric literature purports to show that heights in the United States declined between the 1830s and the 1890s, which is when the US economy...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012457418

The Evolution of Rotation Group Bias : Will the Real Unemployment Rate Please Stand Up?

Krueger, Alan - 2014

This paper documents that rotation group bias -- the tendency for labor force statistics to vary systematically by month in sample in labor force surveys -- in the Current Population Survey (CPS) has worsened considerably over time. The estimated unemployment rate for earlier rotation groups has...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012458270

Communicating Uncertainty in Official Economic Statistics

Manski, Charles F. - 2014

statistics by communicating uncertainty to the public. Sampling error can be measured using established statistical principles …. The challenge is to satisfactorily measure the various forms of non-sampling error. I find it useful to distinguish …

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012458567