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The Demand for Money, Near-Money, and Treasury Bonds
Krishnamurthy, Arvind; Li, Wenhao - National Bureau of Economic Research - 2022
Bank-created money, shadow-bank money, and Treasury bonds all satisfy investors' demand for a liquid transaction medium and safe store of value. We measure the quantity of these three forms of liquidity and their corresponding liquidity premium over a sample from 1934 to 2016. We empirically...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013210079
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Perceptions about Monetary Policy
Bauer, Michael D.; Pflueger, Carolin E.; Sunderam, Adi - National Bureau of Economic Research - 2022
We estimate perceptions about the Fed's monetary policy rule from micro data on professional forecasters. The perceived rule varies significantly over time, with important consequences for monetary policy and bond markets. Over the monetary policy cycle, easings are perceived to be quick and...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013388836
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(Almost) 200 Years of News-Based Economic Sentiment
Binsbergen, Jules H. van; Bryzgalova, Svetlana; … - National Bureau of Economic Research - 2024
Using text from 200 million pages of 13,000 US local newspapers and machine learning methods, we construct a 170-year-long measure of economic sentiment at the country and state levels, that expands existing measures in both the time series (by more than a century) and the cross-section. Our...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10014468226
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A Luna-tic Stablecoin Crash
Uhlig, Harald - National Bureau of Economic Research - 2022
After remaining close to 1 US Dollar since its inception in November 2020, the algorithmic stablecoin UST crashed in the two weeks of May 9th to May 15th, 2022, leading to a price collapse of the underlying LUNA token and the erasure of more than 50 Billion U.S. Dollar or 90% in market value
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013334473
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Money Matters : Broad Divisia Money and the Recovery of Nominal GDP from the COVID-19 Recession
Bordo, Michael D.; Duca, John V. - National Bureau of Economic Research - 2023
The rise of inflation in 2021 and 2022 surprised many macroeconomists who ignored the earlier surge in money growth because past instability in the demand for simple-sum monetary aggregates had made these aggregates unreliable indicators. We find that the demand for more theoretically-based...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10014322692
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The Subjective Inflation Expectations of Households and Firms : Measurement, Determinants, and Implications
Weber, Michael; D'Acunto, Francesco; Gorodnichenko, Yuriy; … - National Bureau of Economic Research - 2022
Households' and firms' subjective inflation expectations play a central role in macroeconomic and intertemporal microeconomic models. We discuss how subjective inflation expectations are measured, the patterns they display, their determinants, and how they shape households' and firms' economic...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013210074
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Uncertainty or Frictions? A Quantitative Model of Scarce Safe Assets
Ilut, Cosmin L.; Krivenko, Pavel; Schneider, Martin - National Bureau of Economic Research - 2024
Why did the real interest rate decline and the equity premium increase over the last 30 years? This paper assesses the role of uncertainty and credit market frictions. We quantify a model with heterogeneous households using data on asset prices and macro aggregates, as well as on households'...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10014512052
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Central Banking Post Crises
Kiley, Michael T.; Mishkin, Frederic S. - National Bureau of Economic Research - 2024
inflation during the first quarter of the 21st century, yielding important insights for central banking. Price stability has … important benefits and is the responsibility of a central bank. Achieving price stability in a complex and uncertain environment … policy strategies and tactics. Crises have emphasized the role of central banks in promoting financial stability, as …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10014512091
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International Reserve Management under Rollover Crises
Barbosa-Alves, Mauricio; Bianchi, Javier; Sosa Padilla, … - National Bureau of Economic Research - 2024
This paper develops a framework to study the management of international reserves when a government faces the risk of a rollover crisis. In the model, it is optimal for the government to reduce its vulnerability by initially lowering debt, and then increasing both debt and reserves as it...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10014544672
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Optimal Mortgage Refinancing with Inattention
Berger, David; Milbradt, Konstantin; Tourre, Fabrice; … - National Bureau of Economic Research - 2024
We build a model of optimal fixed-rate mortgage refinancing with fixed costs and inattention and derive a new sufficient statistic that can be used to measure inattention frictions from simple moments of the rate gap distribution. In the model, borrowers pay attention to rates sporadically so...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10014544725