Our current inflation stemmed from a fiscal shock. The Fed is slow to react. Why? Will the Fed's slow reaction spur … more inflation? I write a simple model that encompasses the Fed's mild projections and its slow reaction, and traditional … views that inflation will surge without swift rate rises. The key question is whether expectations are forward looking or …

This paper studies people's understanding of inflation--their perceived causes, consequences, trade-offs--and the … views align with established economic theories. Our key findings show that the major perceived causes of inflation include … negative consequences of inflation but the most noted one is the increased complexity and difficulty in household decision …

inflation. We construct daily revisions to expectations of future nominal interest rates and inflation that are priced into … nominal and inflation-protected bonds, and find that the relation between these two variables-positive and stable for over … considered in the literature, these results are indicative of a monetary authority that places less weight on inflation …

inflation uncertainty strongly predicts a more hawkish policy stance that is not explained either by the Fed's macroeconomic … forecasts or by public uncertainty proxies. We rationalize these results with a model of inflation tail risks and argue that the … effect of uncertainty on the FOMC's decisions reflects policymakers' concern with maintaining credibility for the inflation …

The fiscal theory states that inflation adjusts so that the real value of government debt equals the present value of … determines the path of expected inflation, while news about the present value of surpluses drives unexpected inflation. I use … fiscal theory to interpret historical episodes, including the rise and fall of inflation in the 1970s and 1980s, the long …

This paper studies the implications of central bank credibility for long-run inflation and inflation dynamics. We … competitive firms. Inflation is driven by the interaction of lack of commitment and the economic environment. We show that long …-run inflation increases following an unanticipated permanent increase in the labor wedge or decrease in the elasticity of …

Post-covid inflation was predominantly driven by unexpectedly strong demand forces, not only in the United States, but … inflation near its 2-percent target---would have severely hampered an already anaemic recovery …

Using a century of data, we show that Treasury convenience yield and inflation comove positively during the … inflationary 1970s-1980s, but negatively pre-WWII and post-2000. An inflation decomposition reveals that higher supply inflation … predicts higher convenience, while lower demand inflation follows higher convenience. In our model, inflationary cost …