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Growth and Risk : A View from International Trade
Krishna, Pravin; Levchenko, Andrei A.; Ma, Lin; … - National Bureau of Economic Research - 2023
This paper studies the cross-country patterns of risky innovation and growth through the lens of international trade. We use a simple theoretical framework of risky quality upgrading by firms under varying levels of financial development to derive two predictions. First, the mean rate of quality...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10014226112
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Globalization, Fertility and Marital Behavior in a Lowest-Low Fertility Setting
Giuntella, Osea; Rotunno, Lorenzo; Stella, Luca - National Bureau of Economic Research - 2022
the fertility and marital behavior in Germany, until recently a lowest-low fertility setting. We find that exposure to … greater import competition from Eastern Europe led to worse labor market outcomes and lower fertility rates. In contrast …, workers in industries that benefited from increased exports had better employment prospects and higher fertility. These …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013334338
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A Penny for Your Thoughts
Hanlon, W. Walker; Heblich, Stephan; Monte, Ferdinando; … - National Bureau of Economic Research - 2022
How do communication costs affect the production of new ideas and inventions? To answer this question, we study the introduction of the Uniform Penny Post in Great Britain in 1840. This reform replaced the previous system of expensive distance-based postage fees with a uniform low rate of one...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013210104
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Measuring the Commercial Potential of Science
Masclans, Roger; Hasan, Sharique; Cohen, Wesley M. - National Bureau of Economic Research - 2024
This paper uses a large language model to develop an ex-ante measure of the commercial potential of scientific findings. In addition to validating the measure against the typical holdout sample, we validate it externally against 1.) the progression of scientific findings through a major...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10014512116
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Mapping the Knowledge Space : Exploiting Unassisted Machine Learning Tools
Teodoridis, Florenta; Lu, Jino; Furman, Jeffrey L. - National Bureau of Economic Research - 2022
Understanding factors affecting the direction of innovation is a central aim of research in the economics of innovation. Progress on this topic has been inhibited by difficulties in measuring distance and movement in knowledge space. We describe a methodology that infers the mapping of the...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013435165
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Preparing for the (Non-Existent?) Future of Work
Korinek, Anton; Juelfs, Megan - National Bureau of Economic Research - 2022
This paper considers the labor market and distributional implications of a scenario of ever-more-intelligent autonomous machines that substitute for human labor and drive down wages. We lay out three concerns arising from such a scenario and evaluate recent predictions and objections to these...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013334391
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Techies and Firm Level Productivity
Harrigan, James; Reshef, Ariell; Toubal, Farid - National Bureau of Economic Research - 2023
manufacturing and non-manufacturing industries. We find that techies raise firm-level productivity, and this effect goes beyond the … employment of R&D workers, extending to ICT and other techies. In non-manufacturing firms, the impact of techies on productivity …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10014322729
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Optimal Trade Policy with International Technology Diffusion
Bai, Yan; Jin, Keyu; Lu, Dan; Wang, Hanxi - National Bureau of Economic Research - 2024
We study optimal dynamic trade policies in an Eaton-Kortum model with technology diffusion through trade. The process of innovation and diffusion is one in which new ideas are combined with insights from others. Trade thus affects technology by determining the distribution from which producers...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10014486189
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Technology and the Global Economy
Eaton, Jonathan; Kortum, Samuel - National Bureau of Economic Research - 2024
Interpreting individual heterogeneity in terms of probability theory has proved powerful in connecting behaviour at the individual and aggregate levels. Returning to Ricardo's focus on comparative efficiency as a basis for international trade, much recent quantitative equilibrium modeling of the...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10014468262
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Technology and Labor Displacement : Evidence from Linking Patents with Worker-Level Data
Kogan, Leonid; Papanikolaou, Dimitris; Schmidt, Lawrence; … - National Bureau of Economic Research - 2023
We develop measures of labor-saving and labor-augmenting technology exposure using textual analysis of patents and job tasks. Using US administrative data, we show that both measures negatively predict earnings growth of individual incumbent workers. While labor-saving technologies predict...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10014436977