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We develop a novel method for the identification of monetary policy shocks. By applying natural language processing techniques to documents that Federal Reserve staff prepare in advance of policy decisions, we capture the Fed's information set. Using machine learning techniques, we then predict...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10014544696
This paper studies people's understanding of inflation--their perceived causes, consequences, trade-offs--and the … views align with established economic theories. Our key findings show that the major perceived causes of inflation include … negative consequences of inflation but the most noted one is the increased complexity and difficulty in household decision …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10014544775
Post-covid inflation was predominantly driven by unexpectedly strong demand forces, not only in the United States, but … inflation near its 2-percent target---would have severely hampered an already anaemic recovery …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10015056186
Our current inflation stemmed from a fiscal shock. The Fed is slow to react. Why? Will the Fed's slow reaction spur … more inflation? I write a simple model that encompasses the Fed's mild projections and its slow reaction, and traditional … views that inflation will surge without swift rate rises. The key question is whether expectations are forward looking or …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013210124
Two extraordinary U.S. labor market developments facilitated the sharp disinflation in 2022-23 without raising the unemployment rate. First, pandemic-driven infection worries and social distancing intentions caused a sizable drag on labor force participation that began to reverse in the first...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10014576613
inflation strongly and persistently, (ii) lead to statistically weak negative effects on activity, (iii) contributed to … having a stronger effect on inflation expectations. Quantitatively, increasing political pressure by half as much as Nixon …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10014544739
We model the competition between digital forms of fiat money and private digital money (PDM). Countries strategically digitize their fiat money -- upgrading existing or launching new payment systems (including CBDCs) -- to enhance adoption and counter PDM competition. A pecking order emerges:...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10015361469
We examine the transmission of monetary policy shocks to the long-duration liabilities of households and firms using high-frequency variation in 10-year swap rates around FOMC announcements. We find that four weeks after the announcement mortgage rates move one-for-one with 10-year swap rates,...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10014486229
We measure the heterogeneous welfare effects of the recent inflation surge across households in the Euro Area. A simple … framework illustrating the numerous channels of the transmission mechanism of surprise inflation to household welfare guides our …; (ii) this inflation episode resembles an age-dependent tax, with the elderly losing up to 20%, and roughly half of the 25 …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10014437027
fluctuations associated with these events are also discussed, as is their role in the recent surge of inflation, with a particular …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10014322883