This paper presents a model in which economic crises have positive effects on welfare. Periods of very high inflation create the incentive for the resolution of social conflict and thus facilitate the introduction of economic reforms and the achievement of higher levels of welfare. Policies to...

This paper investigates the effectiveness of the monetary authority's borrowing policies in resolving exchange rate crises. It shows why obtaining loans or lines of credit in foreign currency may avoid, at least temporarily, the devaluation of a fixed exchange rate, and discusses the problem of...

Existing models of contagious currency crises are summarized and surveyed, and it is argued that more weight should be put on political factors. Towards this end, the concept of political contagion introduced, whereby contagion in speculative attacks across currencies arises solely because of...

The standard model of signaling used in open economy macroeconomics concentrates on building a reputation when a policymaker's `type' is unknown. Observing tough policy leads market participants to raise the probability that a policymaker is tough, and therefore to expect tough policy in the...

A political-economic model of the composition of government debt, that is, whether it is issued to domestic or foreign holders, is presented. The key determinant will be the political constraints on repudiation of foreign and domestic debt, which will determine the nature of the domestic...

This paper presents an overview of recent theoretical and empirical research on 'liquidity models' in open economies; this is a class of optimizing models where money has effects on real asset prices and economic activity without relying on the 'ad-hoc' assumption of price/wage stickiness. The...

This paper addresses two questions: (1) Is a twelve country monetary union in Europe feasible; (2) Can monetary union be achieved at multi-speed, i.e., with a rust group of countries going first, and later admitting the others? After examining several politico-economic arguments concerning...

This paper considers the likely effect on the automobile industry of a free trade agreement between the U.S. and Mexico. As there are currently large restrictions on imports into Mexico, one important outcome of a free trade agreement would be the opening of the Mexican market to U.S. producers....

This paper studies how the creation of a European Central Bank (ECB) will change the political economy of monetary policy in Europe. The twelve governors of the national Central Banks of the EEC have recently proposed a statute for the ECB which delineates its institutional structure. In this...