We provide the first empirical evidence on how media-driven narratives influence cross-border institutional investment flows. Applying natural language processing techniques to one-and-a-half million newspaper articles, we document substantial cross-country variation in sentiment and risk...

When available financial securities allow investors to optimally diversify risk across countries, standard theory implies that exchange rates should reflect this behavior. However, exchange rates observed in the data deviate from these predictions. In this paper, we develop a framework to value...

Global liquidity refers to the volumes of financial flows - largely intermediated through global banks and non-bank financial institutions - that can move at relatively high frequencies across borders. The amplitude of responses to global conditions like risk sentiment, discussed in the context...

We use unique firm-level data from Mexico to document that non-financial corporations engage in carry trades by borrowing in foreign currency (FX) and lending in domestic currency, largely in the form of trade credit, accumulating currency risk in the process. We show at a quarterly frequency...

Governments tend to increase their borrowing at the same time, giving rise to a global fiscal cycle. This global fiscal cycle has a large component that is unexplained by global business cycle variables. We propose a novel explanation for the emergence of the global fiscal cycle: governments'...

We introduce safe asset demand for dollar-denominated bonds into a tractable incomplete-market model of exchange rates. The convenience yield on dollar bonds enters as a stochastic wedge in the Euler equations for exchange rate determination. This wedge reduces the pass-through from marginal...

Investors' behavior in U.S. Treasuries - the world's safe asset - affects monetary policy transmission mechanisms, fiscal policy space, loan pricing, and international vulnerabilities. Yet it is not well understood for a simple reason: researchers, not having a clear picture of the Treasury...

We develop a theory to account for changes in gross and net capital flows over the global financial cycle (GFC). The theory relies critically on portfolio heterogeneity among investors within and across countries, related to risky portfolio shares and portfolio shares allocated to foreign...

Over the last two decades, the unprecedented increase in non-bank financial intermediation, particularly open-end mutual funds and ETFs, accounts for nearly half of the external financing flows to emerging markets exceeding cross-border lending by global banks. Evidence suggests that investment...

We re-examine monetary policy spillovers to Emerging Market Economies (EME) in the form of capital flow reversals, using sectoral-level securities holdings data for Euro Area investors. In response to a surprise monetary tightening, active investors such as investment funds re-balance their...