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through unemployment insurance (UI). We introduce a novel empirical test of standard neoclassical models of fertility that … the interaction of the aggregate unemployment rate with a measure of potential income replacement from UI. Our results … show that as UI benefit generosity reaches 100 percent income replacement, there is no effect of the unemployment rate on …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10014226134
We show that the largest increase in unemployment benefits in U.S. history had large spending impacts and small job …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013361970
To explain the fact that government spending and tax policy are procyclical in emerging and developing countries, we develop a model for the joint behavior of optimal tax rates and government spending over the business cycle. Our set-up relies on financial frictions, which have been shown to be...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012616597
In response to the record-breaking COVID19 recession, many governments have adopted unprecedented fiscal stimuli. While … spending, we document that the effects of government spending were stronger during the peak of the pandemic recession, but only …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012794559
This paper presents a political economy theory of the behavior of fiscal policy over the business cycle. The theory predicts that, in both booms and recessions, fiscal policies are set so that the marginal cost of public funds obeys a submartingale. In the short run, fiscal policy can be...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012464600
Economists generally believe that countercyclical fiscal policies have stabilizing effects that work through automatic stabilizers and discretionary actions. Analyses underlying this conventional wisdom focus on intratemporal margins: how employment and personal income respond in the short run...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012466802
This paper asks how a fiscal expansion would affect Japan. It uses a textbook-style macro model calibrated to fit the Japanese economy. According to the results, Japan's output slump would be ended by a fiscal transfer of 6.6% of GDP. This policy raises the debt-income ratio in the short run,...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012467309
This paper studies optimal monetary policy under dynamic debt deleveraging once the zero bound is binding. Unlike the existing literature, the natural rate of interest is endogenous and depends on macroeconomic policy. Optimal monetary policy successfully raises the natural rate of interest by...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012458109
recession may yield biased results by ignoring whether government spending is increasing or decreasing. In the case of OECD ….3 compared to 1.3 if we just distinguish between recession and expansion. In extreme recessions, the long-run multiplier reaches …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012458132
It is well known by now that government spending has typically been procyclical in developing economies but acyclical or countercyclical in industrial countries. Little, if any, is known, however, about the cyclical behavior of tax rates (as opposed to tax revenues, which are endogenous to the...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012460906