Showing 1 - 10 of 114
A key tenet of representative democracy is that politicians' discourse and policies should follow voters' preferences … local elections, 1958-2022. We first show that candidates tend to converge to the center of the ideology and complexity … focusing on elections in which they narrowly win their primary (in the U.S.) or narrowly qualify for the runoff (in France …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10014322890
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10001791053
A growing theoretical literature emphasizes the role that leaders play in shaping beliefs and social norms. We provide empirical evidence for such 'civic leadership.' We focus on the Forty-Eighters, a group of political refugees from Germany's failed 1848 revolutions, and their role in the...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012453064
This paper documents a stylized fact not well appreciated in the literature. The Third World has been undergoing an emigration life cycle since the 1960s, and, except for Africa, emigration rates have been level or even declining since a peak in the late 1980s and the early 1990s. The current...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012463862
Many, if not most, personalistic dictatorships end up with a disastrous decision such as Hitler's attack on the Soviet Union, Hirohito's government launching a war against the United States, or Putin's invasion of Ukraine in February 2022. Even if the decision is not ultimately fatal for the...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10014250204
This paper formalizes the principle that persecution power of government may generate violent contests over it. We show that this principle yields a large set of theoretical insights on different separation-of-powers institutions that can help to preempt such contests under different...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10014226142
How does persecution affect who migrates? We analyze migrants' self-selection out of the USSR and its satellite states before and after the collapse of Communism using census microdata from the three largest destination countries: Germany, Israel, and the United States. We find that migrants...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013334422
Do politicians tend to follow a strategy of ambiguity in their policy positions or a strategy of reputational development to reduce uncertainty about where they stand? Ambiguity could allow a legislator to avoid alienating constituents and to play rival interests off against each other to...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012471301
multidimensional campaign promises from political candidates in consecutive mayoral elections in the Philippines. Voters who are … preferences by comparing actual incumbent vote shares with shares in counterfactual elections: both effects are substantial. Even … in a clientelist democracy, counterfactual incumbent vote shares deviate more from actual shares when policy and valence …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012452937
estimate their effects on economic performance, trade, human development, conflict, and democracy. Using a close-elections …In most national elections, voters face a key choice between continuity and change. Electoral turnovers occur when the … universe of presidential and parliamentary elections held since 1945. We document the prevalence of turnovers over time and we …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012938735