We study sovereign external debt crises over the past 200 years, with a focus on creditor losses, or "haircuts". Our sample covers 327 sovereign debt restructurings with external private creditors over 205 default spells since 1815. Creditor losses vary widely (from none to 100%), but the...

We study the relationship between credit expansions, macroeconomic fluctuations, and financial crises using a novel database on the sectoral distribution of private credit for 117 countries since 1940. We document that, during credit booms, credit flows disproportionately to the non-tradable...

We characterize how risk evolves during a crisis. Using high-frequency data, we find that the first two principal components (PCs) of the covariance matrix of global asset returns experience large, sudden, and temporary spikes coinciding with well-known crises - Covid-19 pandemic, Global...

China's admission into the WTO in 2001 heralded a new era of globalization, increasing both import competition in domestic markets and foreign opportunities for US firms. In the aggregate, the average annual profitability of US public firms during the post globalization period (2003-2019)...

This paper describes the challenges of globalization in terms of the logic underpinning four distinct policy constraints or "trilemmas" and their interrelationship; in particular the disturbances that arise from capital flows and the difficulties of adjusting monetary policies to a global...

Which income group is pro-globalization or anti-globalization--the wealthy skilled-labor or the poor low-skilled labor? How globalization affect income-based attitudes towards globalization? The paper addresses these issues in the framework of a small open economy which trades in goods and...

Corporate credit lines are drawn more heavily when funding markets are more stressed. This covariance elevates expected bank funding costs. We show that credit supply is dampened by the associated debt-overhang cost to bank shareholders. Until 2022, this impact was reduced by linking the...

Do periods of persistently loose monetary policy increase financial fragility and the likelihood of a financial crisis? This is a central question for policymakers, yet the literature does not provide systematic empirical evidence about this link at the aggregate level. In this paper we fill...

This paper surveys the recent empirical literature on historical banking crises, defined as events taking place before 1980. Advances in data collection and identification have provided new insights into the causes and consequences of crises both immediately and over the long run. We highlight...

We use the 2020 Small Business Credit Survey to study the sources of racial disparities in use of the Paycheck Protection Program (PPP). Black-owned firms are 8.9 percentage points less likely than observably similar white-owned firms to receive PPP loans. About 55% of this take-up disparity is...