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Unemployment Insurance Fraud in the Debit Card Market
Khetan, Umang; Leder-Luis, Jetson; Wang, Jialan; Zhou, … - National Bureau of Economic Research - 2024
We study fraud in the unemployment insurance (UI) system using a dataset of 35 million debit card transactions. We … verification systems between 2020 and 2021 to assess the effectiveness of screening for reducing fraud. Our findings suggest that … technologies. Our results indicate that identity screening may be an effective mechanism for mitigating fraud in the UI system and …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10014544804
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Monetary Transmission Through Bank Securities Portfolios
Greenwald, Daniel; Krainer, John; Paul, Pascal - National Bureau of Economic Research - 2024
We study the transmission of monetary policy through bank securities portfolios using granular supervisory data on U ….S. bank securities, hedging positions, and corporate credit. Banks that experienced larger losses on their securities during …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10014544727
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Real Effects of Stabilizing Private Money Creation
Xu, Chenzi; Yang, He - National Bureau of Economic Research - 2022
We show that decentralized privately created money with unstable values can hinder the traded, more transaction-friction sensitive, sector of the economy. We do so in the context of the NationalBanking Act of 1864 in the United States that created a new federally-regulated, fully-backed currency...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013210088
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Discount Factors and Monetary Policy : Evidence from Dual-Listed Stocks
Vandeweyer, Quentin; Yang, Minghao; Yannelis, Constantine - National Bureau of Economic Research - 2024
This paper studies the transmission of monetary policy to the stock market through investors' discount factors. To isolate this channel, we investigate the effect of US monetary policy surprises on the ratio of prices of the same stock listed simultaneously in Hong Kong and Mainland China, and...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10014544777
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Breaks in the Phillips Curve : Evidence from Panel Data
Smith, Simon C.; Timmermann, Allan; Wright, Jonathan H. - National Bureau of Economic Research - 2023
We revisit time-variation in the Phillips curve, applying new Bayesian panel methods with breakpoints to US and European Union disaggregate data. Our approach allows us to accurately estimate both the number and timing of breaks in the Phillips curve. It further allows us to determine the...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10014250170
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Money Matters : Broad Divisia Money and the Recovery of Nominal GDP from the COVID-19 Recession
Bordo, Michael D.; Duca, John V. - National Bureau of Economic Research - 2023
The rise of inflation in 2021 and 2022 surprised many macroeconomists who ignored the earlier surge in money growth because past instability in the demand for simple-sum monetary aggregates had made these aggregates unreliable indicators. We find that the demand for more theoretically-based...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10014322692
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Cognitive Behavior Therapy Reduces Crime and Violence over 10 Years : Experimental Evidence
Blattman, Christopher; Chaskel, Sebastian; Jamison, … - National Bureau of Economic Research - 2022
In most societies, a small number of people commit the most serious violence. Short-term studies have shown that cognitive behavioral therapy (CBT) can reduce such antisocial behaviors. These behavior changes may be temporary, however, especially from therapy on its own. This is unsettled,...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013210077
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The Crime Effect of Refugees
Akbulut-Yuksel, Mevlude; Mocan, Naci; Tumen, Semih; … - National Bureau of Economic Research - 2022
We analyze the impact on crime of 3.7 million refugees who entered and stayed in Turkey as a result of the civil war in Syria. Using a novel administrative data source on the flow of offense records to prosecutors' offices in 81 provinces of the country each year, and utilizing the staggered...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013210098
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Effects of COVID-19 Shutdowns on Domestic Violence in the U.S
Chen, Yutong; Miller, Amalia R.; Segal, Carmit; … - National Bureau of Economic Research - 2024
This chapter examines the impact of COVID-19 shutdowns on domestic violence (DV) in the United States. Despite widespread concerns that pandemic shutdowns could increase DV, initial studies found mixed evidence that varied across data sources and locations. We review the evolving literature on...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10014512113
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Building Non-Discriminatory Algorithms in Selected Data
Arnold, David; Dobbie, Will; Hull, Peter - National Bureau of Economic Research - 2024
We develop new quasi-experimental tools to understand algorithmic discrimination and build non-discriminatory algorithms when the outcome of interest is only selectively observed. These tools are applied in the context of pretrial bail decisions, where conventional algorithmic predictions are...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10014544682