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Inflation and GDP Dynamics in Production Networks : A Sufficient Statistics Approach
Afrouzi, Hassan; Bhattarai, Saroj - National Bureau of Economic Research - 2023
We derive closed-form solutions and sufficient statistics for inflation and GDP dynamics in multi-sector New Keynesian economies with arbitrary input-output linkages. Analytically, we decompose how production linkages (1) amplify the persistence of inflation and GDP responses to monetary and...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10014287319
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Horses for Courses : Measuring Foreign Supply Chain Exposure
Baldwin, Richard E.; Freeman, Rebecca; … - National Bureau of Economic Research - 2022
Perceptions of global supply chains (GSCs) have shifted in recent years from a positive to a more cautious view. Standard GSC measures have mostly not adapted to this change as they focus on participation in, rather than exposure to, foreign supply chains. This paper presents the tools necessary...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013388881
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Hidden Exposure : Measuring US Supply Chain Reliance
Baldwin, Richard E.; Freeman, Rebecca; … - National Bureau of Economic Research - 2023
Supply chain problems, previously relegated to specialized journals, now appear in G7 Leaders' Communiqués. Our paper looks at three core elements of the problems: measurement of the links that expose supply chains to disruptions, the nature of the shocks that cause the disruptions, and the...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10014421246
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Structural Change Within versus Across Firms : Evidence from the United States
Ding, Xiang; Fort, Teresa C.; Redding, Stephen; Schott, … - National Bureau of Economic Research - 2022
We document the role of intangible capital in manufacturing firms' substantial contribution to non-manufacturing employment growth from 1977-2019. Exploiting data on firms' "auxiliary" establishments, we develop a novel measure of proprietary in-house knowledge and show that it is associated...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013334346
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New Measurement of Export Participation in U.S. Manufacturing
Boehm, Christoph E.; Flaaen, Aaron; Pandalai-Nayar, Nitya - National Bureau of Economic Research - 2023
We measure export participation rates in the U.S. manufacturing sector using a new administrative dataset and compare them to participation rates constructed from the commonly used Census of Manufacturers (CM). Both at the establishment and firm level export participation rates are near 40...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013537758
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Lessons from U.S.-China Trade Relations
Caliendo, Lorenzo; Parro, Fernando - National Bureau of Economic Research - 2022
We review theoretical and empirical work on the economic effects of the United States and China trade relations during the last decades. We first discuss the origins of the China shock, its measurement, and present methods used to study its economic effects on different outcomes. We then focus...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013361989
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The ‘China Shock’, Exports and U.S. Employment : A Global Input-Output Analysis
Feenstra, Robert C. - 2017
We quantify the impact on U.S. employment from imports and exports during 1995-2011, using the World Input-Output Database. We find that the growth in U.S. exports led to increased demand for 2 million jobs in manufacturing, 0.5 million in resource industries, and a remarkable 4.1 million jobs...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012453691
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Networks and the Macroeconomy : An Empirical Exploration
Acemoglu, Daron - 2015
The propagation of macroeconomic shocks through input-output and geographic networks can be a powerful driver of macroeconomic fluctuations. We first exposit that in the presence of Cobb-Douglas production functions and consumer preferences, there is a specific pattern of economic transmission...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012457324
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An Import(ant) Price of Brexit Uncertainty
Graziano, Alejandro G.; Handley, Kyle; Limão, Nuno - National Bureau of Economic Research - 2023
We estimate the impact of trade policy uncertainty (TPU) on CES import price indices, focusing on the implications of … U.K. import price indices by raising the prices of existing products and by reducing product variety from the E.U. We … find evidence that the risk of higher import protection from the 2016 referendum increased current import price indices by …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10014337833
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Trade War and Peace : U.S.-China Trade and Tariff Risk from 2015–2050
Alessandria, George A.; Khan, Shafaat Yar; … - National Bureau of Economic Research - 2024
We use the dynamics of U.S. imports across goods in the period around the U.S.-China trade war with a model of exporter dynamics to estimate the dynamic path of the probability of transiting between Normal Trade Relations and a trade war state. We find (i) there was no increase in the likelihood...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10014486241