We study how changes in trade barriers contributed to the dynamics of the US trade balance and real exchange rate since 1980 - a period when trade tripled. Using two dynamic trade models, we decompose fluctuations in the trade balance into terms related to trade integration (global and...

We provide a theoretical interpretation of two features of international data: the countercyclical movements in net exports and the tendency for the trade balance to be negatively correlated with current and future movements in the terms of trade, but positively correlated with past movements....

This paper studies the evolution of China's production and trade patterns during its integration into the global economy. We document and explain new facts concerning changes in production and exports at the industry and firm levels using microdata and a quantitative Ricardian and...

We measure the importance of increasing returns to scale and trade in medical services. Using Medicare claims data, we document that "imported" medical care -- services produced by a medical provider in a different region -- constitute about one-fifth of US healthcare consumption. Larger regions...

Innovation depends on exporting and, in particular, on scale and competition in export markets. We develop a theory featuring (1) quality-segmented markets, (2) step-by-step innovation that moves firms forward along the quality ladder, and (3) escape-the-competition motives for innovation. We...

Distribution of goods often involves multiple intermediaries engaged in sequential buying and reselling. Why do these chains of intermediation exist, and what are their implications for consumers? We show that multi-intermediary chains arise in response to internal economies of scale in trade...

We estimate a model of firm export dynamics featuring cross-country complementarities. The firm decides where to export by solving a dynamic combinatorial discrete choice problem, for which we develop a solution algorithm that overcomes the computational challenges inherent to the large...

We use the dynamics of U.S. imports across goods in the period around the U.S.-China trade war with a model of exporter dynamics to estimate the dynamic path of the probability of transiting between Normal Trade Relations and a trade war state. We find (i) there was no increase in the likelihood...

Countries are increasingly turning to non-tariff barriers that are hard to measure and often illegal under WTO rules. What are the impacts of these policies, and what do they reveal about market power in international trade? We study a comprehensive system of discretionary import licenses...

The rise of artificial intelligence (AI) and of cross-border restrictions on data flows has created a host of new questions and related policy dilemmas. This paper addresses two questions: How is digital service trade shaped by (1) AI algorithms and (2) by the interplay between AI algorithms and...