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Smith, Matthew - 2019

How important is human capital at the top of the U.S. income distribution? A primary source of top income is private "pass-through" business profit, which can include entrepreneurial labor income for tax reasons. This paper asks whether top pass-through profit mostly reflects human capital,...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012479398

The Exorbitant Tax Privilege

Wright, Thomas - 2018

We estimate and attempt to explain the evolution of the taxes paid by U.S. multinationals on their foreign profits since 1966. In the oil sector, taxes paid to oil-producing States have been contained, allowing U.S. firms to earn high after-tax returns. Foreign taxes fell abruptly after the...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012480636

Shale Shocked : Cash Windfalls and Household Debt Repayment

Cookson, J. Anthony - 2020

How do persistent cash flow shocks affect debt repayment across the distribution of households? Using individual data on natural gas shale royalty payments matched with credit bureau data for 215,639 consumers, we estimate that individuals repay 33 cents of debt per dollar of windfall, and that...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012481085

Pandemics, Vaccines and Corporate Earnings

Hong, Harrison - 2020

We estimate a model of damage to corporate earnings from COVID-19. An unexpected pandemic lowers current earnings due … to costly mitigation and reduces growth rates. Damage depends on the expected arrival of a vaccine that reverts earnings … to normal. Using this model, we infer from analysts' earnings forecasts that, as of mid-May 2020, an effective vaccine is …

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012481132

The Persistence of Miscalibration

Boutros, Michael - 2020

Using 14,800 forecasts of one-year S&P 500 returns made by Chief Financial Officers over a 12-year period, we track the individual executives who provide multiple forecasts to study how their beliefs evolve dynamically. While CFOs' return forecasts are systematically unbiased, their confidence...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012482230

Bubbly Liquidity

Farhi, Emmanuel - 2011

This paper analyzes the possibility and the consequences of rational bubbles in a dy- namic economy where financially constrained firms demand and supply liquidity. Bub- bles are more likely to emerge, the scarcer the supply of outside liquidity and the more limited the pledgeability of...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012461908

The Buck Stops Where? The Distribution of Agricultural Subsidies

Goodwin, Barry K. - 2011

The U.S. has a long history of providing generous support for the agricultural sector. A recent omnibus package of farm legislation, the 2008 Farm Bill (P.L. 110-246) will provide in excess of $284 billion in financial support to U.S. agriculture over the 2008-2012 period. Commodity program...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012461964

Retail Trade by Federal Reserve District, 1919 to 1939 : A Statistical History

Park, Haelim M. - 2010

Soon after beginning operations, the Federal Reserve established a nationwide network for collecting information about the economy. In 1919, the Fed began tabulating data by about retail sales, which it viewed as a fundamental measure of consumption. From 1920 until 1929, the Federal Reserve...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012462040

The Predictive Power of the Yield Curve across Countries and Time

Chinn, Menzie D. - 2010

In recent years, there has been renewed interest in the yield curve (or alternatively, the term premium) as a predictor of future economic activity. In this paper, we re-examine the evidence for this predictor, both for the United States, as well as European countries. We examine the sensitivity...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012462258

Hard Times

Campbell, John Y. - 2010

This paper shows that the stock market downturns of 2000-2002 and 2007-09 have very different proximate causes. The early 2000's saw a large increase in the discount rates applied to corporate profits by rational investors, while the late 2000's saw a decrease in rational expectations of future...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012462433