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What the Government Purchases Multiplier Actually Multiplied in the 2009 Stimulus Package
Cogan, John F. - 2010
government purchases multiplier. But equally crucial is the size of the government purchases multiplicand--the change in … government purchases of goods and services that the multiplier actually multiplies. Using new data from the Bureau of Economic … government purchases multiplier, changes in government purchases have had no material effect on the growth of GDP since the time …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012462152
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Fiscal Multipliers in the COVID19 Recession
Auerbach, Alan J.; Gorodnichenko, Yuriy; McCrory, Peter B. - National Bureau of Economic Research - 2021
In response to the record-breaking COVID19 recession, many governments have adopted unprecedented fiscal stimuli. While countercyclical fiscal policy is effective in fighting conventional recessions, little is known about the effectiveness of fiscal policy in the current environment with...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012794559
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Local Fiscal Multipliers and Fiscal Spillovers in the United States
Auerbach, Alan J. - 2019
We estimate local fiscal multipliers and spillovers for the United States using a rich dataset based on U.S. Department of Defense contracts and a variety of outcome variables relating to income and employment. We find strong positive spillovers across locations and industries. Both backward...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012479413
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Partisanship and Fiscal Policy in Economic Unions : Evidence from U.S. States
Carlino, Gerald A.; Drautzburg, Thorsten; Inman, Robert P. - National Bureau of Economic Research - 2021
effects from these partisan differences. First, the transfer multiplier would rise by 0.60 if Republican governors were to … imply variation in the fiscal multiplier of 0.40. Local projection regressions support this prediction …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012482641
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Government Spending Multipliers in Good Times and in Bad : Evidence from U.S. Historical Data
Ramey, Valerie A. - 2014
This paper investigates whether U.S. government spending multipliers differ according to two potentially important features of the economy: (1) the amount of slack and (2) whether interest rates are near the zero lower bound. We shed light on these questions by analyzing new quarterly historical...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012457947
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Do Government Spending Multipliers Depend on the Sign of the Shock?
Ben Zeev, Nadav; Ramey, Valerie A.; Zubairy, Sarah - National Bureau of Economic Research - 2023
We analyze whether government spending multipliers differ by the sign of the shock. Using aggregate historical U.S. data, we apply Ben Zeev's (2020) nonlinear diagnostic tests and find evidence of nonlinearities in the impulse response functions of both government spending and GDP. We then...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10014247936
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The Missing Intercept : A Demand Equivalence Approach
Wolf, Christian - National Bureau of Economic Research - 2021
) a fiscal multiplier of one and so a missing intercept close to zero. I also discuss the robustness of this aggregation …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012794586
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Granular Credit Risk
Galaasen, Sigurd - 2020
What is the impact of granular credit risk on banks and on the economy? We provide the first causal identification of single-name counterparty exposure risk in bank portfolios by applying a new empirical approach on an administrative matched bank-firm dataset from Norway. Exploiting the fat tail...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012482214
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Economics, History, and Causation
Morck, Randall - 2011
Economics and history both strive to understand causation: economics using instrumental variables econometrics and history by weighing the plausibility of alternative narratives. Instrumental variables can lose value with repeated use because of an econometric tragedy of the commons bias: each...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012461979
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A Model-Based Evaluation of the Debate on the Size of the Tax Multiplier
Chahrour, Ryan - 2010
The SVAR and narrative approaches to estimating tax multipliers deliver significantly different results. The former yields multipliers of about 1 percent, whereas the latter produces much larger multipliers of about 3 percent. The SVAR and narrative approaches differ along two important...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012462488