in the future. We appeal to decision theory under risk, model ambiguity and misspecification concerns to provide an … into a low dimensional characterization that depends on the uncertainty aversion of a decision-maker or fictitious social …

The appeal of expected utility theory as a basis for a descriptive model of risky decision making has diminished is a … parametric model of risky decision making. Our results suggest that models which provide for probability transformations are most …

In this paper, we assess the degree to which four of the most commonly used models of risky decision making can explain … explain the decision-making behavior of the majority of our subjects. Surprisingly, we find that the choice behavior of the … of risky decision making …

. In this paper, we explore the consequences of improved prediction in decision-making. To do so, we adapt existing models … of decision-making under uncertainty to account for the process of determining payoffs. We label this process of … on whether the improvements in prediction enable automated decision-making. We discuss the implications of improved …

bias leading to a large body of related empirical work, with recent innovations in settings where decision makers are … bias in decision making in such settings. Our results call into question recent conclusions about racial bias among bail … differences in underlying individual characteristics, or by biased decision makers. Becker (1957) proposed an outcome test for …

Outcome bias occurs when an evaluator considers ex-post outcomes when judging whether a choice was correct, ex-ante. We … formalize this cognitive bias in a simple model of distorted Bayesian updating. We then examine strategy changes made by …

This paper concerns the prescriptive function of decision analysis. I suppose that an agent must choose an action …. Hence, I reason that prescriptions for decision making should respect actuality. That is, they should promote welfare … maximization in the choice problem the agent actually faces. I conclude that any decision rule respecting weak and stochastic …