This paper quantifies the amount of noise and bias in analysts' forecast of corporate earnings at various horizons. We … next decompose the relative accuracy of these forecasts into three components: (i) noise, (ii) bias and (iii) analysts … both noise and bias are increase linearly. We then show most existing models lack a mechanism to account for these facts …

additional tests, some of which utilize data on adverse health events, suggests that the forecast biases are at least partly due …

An important aspect of corporate governance is the assessment of managers. When managers vary in ability, determining …? This paper begins an exploration of that issue by considering the consequence of one such bias, the base-rate fallacy, for … due to the base-rate fallacy, they can also benefit from this bias …

') bias in the estimates and, after due account is taken of this bias, we find that differences due to estimation method are …

some, but not all, of the approximation bias …

reliance on intuitions. In none of the tasks are very high stakes sufficient to de-bias participants, or come even close to …