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Existing models of contagious currency crises are summarized and surveyed, and it is argued that more weight should be put on political factors. Towards this end, the concept of political contagion introduced, whereby contagion in speculative attacks across currencies arises solely because of...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012471578
This paper develops a stochastic equilibrium model of an open economy incorporating speculation in the forward exchange … market. The model is used to examine two issues. The first is the role of speculation in stabilizing the economy against … stochastic disturbances. Much risk averse speculation stabilizes domestic income against disturbances in the domestic bond market …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012477963
In the 1990s, currency crises in Europe, Mexico and Southeast Asia have drawn worldwide attention to speculative attacks on government-controlled exchange rates. To improve our understanding of these events, researchers have undertaken new theoretical and empirical work. In this paper, we...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012472438
This paper is concerned with the fact that the incidence of speculative attacks tends to be temporally correlated; that is, currency crises appear to pass contagiously from one country to another. The paper provides a survey of the theoretical literature, and analyzes the contagious nature of...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012473161
Although internal policy mismanagements can be cited in most recent emerging market crises, they seldom account fully for the severity of these crises. The reluctance of international investors to provide the resources that would limit the extent of the reversal almost invariably plays a key...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012471969
We argue that recent currency crises reflect clashes between fundamentals and pegged exchange rates, just as did crises in the past. We reject the view that crises reflect self-fulfilling prophecies that are not closely related to measured fundamentals. Doubts about the timing of a market attack...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012473128
In January 2015, in the face of sustained capital inflows, the Swiss National Bank abandoned the floor for the Swiss Franc against the Euro, a decision which led to the appreciation of the Swiss Franc. The objective of this paper is to present a simple framework that helps to better understand...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012456377
The discomfort a government suffers from speculation against its currency determines the strategic incentives of …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012473585
This paper proposes a theory of twin banking-currency crises in which both fundamentals and self-fulfilling beliefs …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012471221
This paper argues that the recent Southeast Asian currency crisis was caused by large prospective deficits associated with implicit bailout guarantees to failing banking systems. We articulate this view using a simple dynamic general equilibrium model whose key feature is that a speculative...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012472055