Showing 1 - 10 of 4,987
According to conventional wisdom, annualized volatility of stock returns is lower when computed over long horizons than …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012463890
We show that the stock market price reaction to monetary policy surprises upon announcements of the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) is explained mostly by changes in the default-free term structure of yields, not by changes in the equity premium. We reach this conclusion based on a new...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10015056210
implications of a broad range of U.S. tax code provisions for behavior of interest rates. Determinants of interest rate volatility …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012477933
We investigate whether bonds span the volatility risk in the U.S. Treasury market, as predicted by most 'affine' term … cross-section of fixed-maturity zero-coupon bonds ("realized yield volatility") through the use of high-frequency data. We … find that the yield curve fails to span yield volatility, as the systematic volatility factors are largely unrelated to the …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012465694
-series variation of conditional volatility and skewness of the swap rate distributions implied by the swaption cube. We then develop … and estimate a dynamic term structure model that is consistent with these stylized facts, and use it to infer volatility … and skewness of the risk-neutral and physical swap rate distributions. Finally, we investigate the fundamental drivers of …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012462108
This paper examines the economic environments in which past U.S. stock market booms occurred as a first step toward understanding how asset price booms come about and whether monetary policy should be used to defuse booms. We identify several episodes of sustained rapid rise in equity prices in...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012467986
We model the term structure of interest rates as resulting from the interaction between investor clienteles with preferences for specific maturities and risk-averse arbitrageurs. Because arbitrageurs are risk averse, shocks to clienteles' demand for bonds affect the term structure---and...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012463162
We study theoretically and empirically the relationship between investor beliefs, ownership dispersion and stock returns. We find that high dispersion, measured by high breadth or low Herfindahl index, forecasts returns positively for large stocks, as in Chen, Hong and Stein (2002), but...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012510575
We propose a latent variables approach within a present-value model to estimate the expected returns and expected dividend growth rates of the aggregate stock market. This approach aggregates information contained in the history of price-dividend ratios and dividend growth rates to predict...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012462393
This review article describes recent literature on asset allocation, covering both static and dynamic models. The article focuses on the bond--stock decision and on the implications of return predictability. In the static setting, investors are assumed to be Bayesian, and the role of various...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012462400