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We study the role of information in asset pricing models with long-run cash flow risk. When investors can distinguish short- from long-run consumption risks (full information), the model generates a sizable equity risk premium only if the equity term structure slopes up, contrary to the data. In...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012465744
According to conventional wisdom, annualized volatility of stock returns is lower when computed over long horizons than …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012463890
) levels of volatility. These results provide a novel perspective on both the equity risk premium and excess volatility puzzles …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012481562
We show that the stock market price reaction to monetary policy surprises upon announcements of the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) is explained mostly by changes in the default-free term structure of yields, not by changes in the equity premium. We reach this conclusion based on a new...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10015056210
We investigate whether bonds span the volatility risk in the U.S. Treasury market, as predicted by most 'affine' term … cross-section of fixed-maturity zero-coupon bonds ("realized yield volatility") through the use of high-frequency data. We … find that the yield curve fails to span yield volatility, as the systematic volatility factors are largely unrelated to the …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012465694
implications of a broad range of U.S. tax code provisions for behavior of interest rates. Determinants of interest rate volatility …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012477933
-series variation of conditional volatility and skewness of the swap rate distributions implied by the swaption cube. We then develop … and estimate a dynamic term structure model that is consistent with these stylized facts, and use it to infer volatility … and skewness of the risk-neutral and physical swap rate distributions. Finally, we investigate the fundamental drivers of …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012462108
This paper examines the economic environments in which past U.S. stock market booms occurred as a first step toward understanding how asset price booms come about and whether monetary policy should be used to defuse booms. We identify several episodes of sustained rapid rise in equity prices in...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012467986
paper examines how well time-changed Lévy specifications capture stochastic volatility, the "leverage" effect, and the …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012463735
We model the term structure of interest rates as resulting from the interaction between investor clienteles with preferences for specific maturities and risk-averse arbitrageurs. Because arbitrageurs are risk averse, shocks to clienteles' demand for bonds affect the term structure---and...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012463162