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Attention Cycles
Flynn, Joel P.; Sastry, Karthik - National Bureau of Economic Research - 2024
firms' mistakes and attention. Quantitatively, attention cycles generate significant stochastic volatility of output growth …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10014576581
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The Macroeconomics of Narratives
Flynn, Joel P.; Sastry, Karthik - National Bureau of Economic Research - 2024
We study the macroeconomic implications of narratives, defined as beliefs about the economy that spread contagiously. In an otherwise standard business-cycle model, narratives generate persistent and belief-driven fluctuations. Sufficiently contagious narratives can "go viral," generating...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10014576631
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Financial Markets, the Real Economy, and Self-fulfilling Uncertainties
Benhabib, Jess - 2018
Uncertainty in both financial markets and the real economy rises sharply during recessions. We develop a model of informational interdependence between financial markets and the real economy, linking uncertainty to information production and aggregate economic activities. We argue that there...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012480637
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Participation Dynamics : Sunspots and Cycles
Chatterjee, Satyajit - 1990
This paper investigates the possibility of sunspots equilibria and endogenous cycles in an overlapping generations model with strategic interactions. We consider an economy with imperfectly competitive product markets. There is a participation decision on the part of prospective firms and a...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012475592
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Taxing Capital? Not a Bad Idea After All!
Conesa, Juan Carlos - 2007
In this paper we quantitatively characterize the optimal capital and labor income tax in an overlapping generations model with idiosyncratic, uninsurable income shocks, where households also differ permanently with respect to their ability to generate income. The welfare criterion we employ is...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012465776
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Consumption Over the Life Cycle : The Role of Annuities
Hansen, Gary D. - 2006
We explore the quantitative implications of uncertainty about the length of life and a lack of annuity markets for life cycle consumption in a general equilibrium overlapping generations model in which markets are otherwise complete. Empirical studies find that consumption tends to rise early in...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012466324
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Government Debt and Social Security in a Life-Cycle Economy
Gertler, Mark - 1997
This paper develops a tractable overlapping generations model that is useful for analyzing both the short and long run impact of fiscal policy and social security. It modifies the Blanchard (1985)/Weil (1987) framework to allow for life/cycle behavior. This is accomplished by introducing random...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012472818
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Demographics, Wealth, and Global Imbalances in the Twenty-First Century
Auclert, Adrien; Malmberg, Hannes; Martenet, Frederic; … - National Bureau of Economic Research - 2021
We use a sufficient statistic approach to quantify the general equilibrium effects of population aging on wealth accumulation, expected asset returns, and global imbalances. Combining population forecasts with household survey data from 25 countries, we measure the compositional effect of aging:...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012616609
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The Savings Glut of the Old : Population Aging, the Risk Premium, and the Murder-Suicide of the Rentier
Kopecky, Joseph; Taylor, Alan M. - National Bureau of Economic Research - 2022
changes in safe rates using demographics. We go further to account for divergent returns on different assets as well as the … assets (a safe bond and equity) and with aggregate risk. Aging demographics can help to simultaneously explain three key … elevated, as post-boomer demographics push asset returns to unprecedented and persistently low levels …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013191039
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The Murder-Suicide of the Rentier : Population Aging and the Risk Premium
Kopecky, Joseph - 2020
demographics, but has no mechanism to speak to trends in relative returns on different assets. We calibrate a heterogeneous agent … life-cycle model with equity markets and aggregate risk, and we show that aging demographics can simultaneously account for …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012481900