Most economists maintain that the labor market in the United States is 'tight' because unemployment rates are low. They …, prior to that, real wages had been stagnant for some time. We show that unemployment is not key to understanding wage …

We introduce dynamic incentive contracts into a model of unemployment dynamics and present three results. First, wage … cyclicality from incentives does not dampen unemployment dynamics: the response of unemployment to shocks is first … cyclicality from bargaining dampens unemployment dynamics through the standard mechanism. Third, our calibrated model suggests 46 …

, unemployment and inflation to aggregate shocks. The ratio between job-finding probabilities from job-to-job and from unemployment … the unemployment rate …

-recession trend, suggesting hysteresis. Second, while inflation has decreased, it has decreased less than anticipated, suggesting a … unemployment on inflation, for given expected inflation, decreased until the early 1990s, but has remained roughly stable since …

I develop a version of the New Keynesian model with insider-outsider labor markets and hysteresis that can account for … the high persistence of European unemployment. I study the implications of that environment for the design of monetary … policy. The optimal policy calls for strong emphasis on (un)employment stabilization which a standard interest rate rule …

variables while it is uncorrelated with life satisfaction. The unemployment rate and the CPI reduce both. We analyze data for 29 … European countries to predict changes in the unemployment rate 12 months ahead using individuals' fears of unemployment in the … presence of country and year fixed effects and lagged unemployment. We also use firms' expectations of future employment, which …

workers are unemployed. Both the reemployment hazard rate and reemployment earnings steadily fall with unemployment duration …

's mandate-consistent rate and the latter's target, respectively, and their unemployment forecasts were above sustainable rates …

We design and field an innovative survey of unemployment insurance (UI) recipients that yields new insights about wage … efficient separations that holds in leading theories of job separations, frictional unemployment, and job ladders. We draw on …