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Interpreting the Great Moderation : Changes in the Volatility of Economic Activity at the Macro and Micro Levels

Davis, Steven J. - 2008

We review evidence on the Great Moderation in conjunction with evidence about volatility trends at the micro level. We … combine the two types of evidence to develop a tentative story for important components of the aggregate volatility decline … and its consequences. The key ingredients are declines in firm-level volatility and aggregate volatility -- most …

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012464599

Monetary Policy, Trend Inflation and the Great Moderation : An Alternative Interpretation

Coibion, Olivier - 2008

With positive trend inflation, the Taylor principle is not enough to guarantee a determinate equilibrium. We provide new theoretical results on restoring determinacy in New Keynesian models with positive trend inflation and combine these with new empirical findings on the Federal Reserve's...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012464026

The Wealth of Working Nations

Fernández-Villaverde, Jesús; Ventura, Gustavo; Yao, Wen - National Bureau of Economic Research - 2023

Due to population aging, GDP growth per capita and GDP growth per working-age adult have become quite different among many advanced economies over the last several decades. Countries whose GDP growth per capita performance has been lackluster, like Japan, have done surprisingly well in terms of...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10014437045

The Puzzling Behavior of Spreads during Covid

Fourakis, Stelios S.; Karabarbounis, Loukas - National Bureau of Economic Research - 2024

Advanced economies borrowed substantially during the Covid recession to fund their fiscal policy. The Covid recession differed from the Great Recession in that sovereign debt markets remained calm and spreads barely responded. We study the experience of Greece, the most extreme manifestation of...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10014468244

The Credit Supply Channel of Monetary Policy Tightening and its Distributional Impacts

Bosshardt, Joshua; Di Maggio, Marco; Kakhbod, Ali; … - National Bureau of Economic Research - 2023

This paper studies how tightening monetary policy transmits to the economy through the mortgage market and sheds new light on the distributional consequences at both the individual and regional levels. We find that credit supply factors, specifically restrictions on the debt-to-income (DTI)...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10014322851

The Neoclassical Growth of China

Fernández-Villaverde, Jesús; Ohanian, Lee E.; Yao, Wen - National Bureau of Economic Research - 2023

This paper studies China's four-fold increase in per capita GDP relative to the U.S. between 1995 and 2019. First, we argue that China's growth pattern is very similar to that of several other East Asia economies that initially grew very quickly. Second, we show that a minimalist...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10014322739

Federal Reserve Policy, Interest Rate Volatility, and the U.S. Capital Raising Mechanism

Friedman, Benjamin M. - 1982

. raising mechanism due to the sharp increase in interest rate volatility that has followed the Federal Reserve System …'s adoption of new monetary policy procedures in 1979. First, the increased volatility has probably led nonfinancial corporations … increased volatility has probably led underwriters of high grade corporate bonds to increase the spread of a typical new issue …

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012478191

The Outlook for Women's Employment and Labor Force Participation

Albanesi, Stefania - National Bureau of Economic Research - 2023

Employment and participation rates for US prime age women rose steadily during the second half of the 20th century. In the last 30 years, however, those rates stagnated, even as employment and participation rates for women in other industrialized countries continued to rise. I discuss the role...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10014437047

Asset Demand and Real Interest Rates

Beaudry, Paul; Kartashova, Katya; Meh, Césaire Assah - National Bureau of Economic Research - 2024

Understanding factors that drive asset demand is central to explaining movements in long-term real interest rates. In this paper, we begin by documenting that much of the increase in the demand for assets in the US in the 30 years prior to Covid represented greater desire to hold assets by...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10014512102

Declining Responsiveness at the Establishment Level : Sources and Productivity Implications

Cooper, Russell W.; Haltiwanger, John C.; Willis, … - National Bureau of Economic Research - 2024

This paper studies competing sources of declining dynamism. Evidence shows that an important component of this decline is accounted for by the reduction in the response of employment to shocks in US establishments. Using a plant level dynamic optimization problem as a framework for analysis,...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10014486222

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