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evolving Fed credibility, which accords with our recent work using a quantitative New Keynesian model. We define credibility as …, no conflict arises between flexible inflation targeting and maintaining/accumulating credibility. Second, implicit …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013210040
We analyze the optimal Taylor rule in a standard New Keynesian model. If the central bank can observe the output gap and the inflation rate without error, then it is typically optimal to respond infinitely strongly to observed deviations from the central bank's targets. If it observes inflation...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012458429
Cochrane (2007) has strongly questioned the basic economic logic of current mainstream monetary policy analysis, arguing that the standard notion --that "determinacy" of a rational expectations (RE) equilibrium suffices to imply that stable inflation behavior will be generated -- is incorrect....
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012464114
In this paper we provide empirical measures of central bank credibility and augment these with historical narratives … their role in influencing the credibility of the monetary authority. We focus on measures of inflation expectations, the … credibility is particularly vulnerable during financial crises, whether its evolution is a function of the type of crisis or its …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012457842
This paper examines the historical evolution of central bank credibility using both historical narrative and empirics … for a group of 16 countries, both advanced and emerging. It shows how the evolution of credibility has gone through a … pendulum where credibility was high under the classical gold standard before 1914 before being lost and not fully regained …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012457973
Inflation targeting offers the promise of introducing to monetary policy a logic and consistency that some central banks' deliberations sorely missed in the past. At least in today's inherited monetary policymaking context, however, inflation targeting also serves two further objectives that are...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012469742
Nonetheless, we find that the target criterion--a linear relation that should be maintained between the inflation rate and changes in the output gap--that characterizes optimal policy in the basic NK model continues to provide a good approximation to optimal policy, even in the presence of...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012456851
This paper characterizes the properties of various interest-rate rules in a basic forward-looking model. We compare simple Taylor rules and rules that respond to price-level fluctuations (called Wicksellian rules). We argue that by introducing an appropriate amount of history dependence in...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012462667
This paper analyzes the value of communication in the implementation of monetary policy. The central bank is uncertain about the current state of the economy. Households and firms are uncertain about the statistical properties of aggregate variables, including nominal interest rates, and must...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012465393
This paper makes changes in monetary policy rules (or regimes) endogenous. Changes are triggered when certain endogenous variables cross specified thresholds. Rational expectations equilibria are examined in three models of threshold switching to illustrate that (i) expectations formation...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012466260