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Economic Impossibilities for our Grandchildren?

O'Rourke, Kevin Hjortshøj - 2015

The paper looks at the development of the secular stagnation thesis, in the context of the economic history of the time. It explores some 19th century antecedents of the thesis, before turning to its interwar development. Not only Alvin Hansen, but Keynes and Hicks were involved in the...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012456864

Comparing Greenbook and Reduced Form Forecasts using a Large Realtime Dataset

Faust, Jon - 2007

one takes account of Greenbook's advantage in evaluating the current state of the economy, neither large dataset methods …

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012465253

A Comparison of Monthly Global Indicators for Forecasting Growth

Baumeister, Christiane - 2020

covers multiple dimensions of the global economy consistently produces substantial improvements in forecast accuracy, while … for assessing the current and future state of the economy for a set of individual countries and groups of countries. We … use this indicator to track the evolution of the nowcasts for the US, the OECD area, and the world economy during the …

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012482234

U.S. Growth in the Decade Ahead

Feldstein, Martin S. - 2010

Not all of that extra output will remain in the United States. If the trade deficit is reduced by three percent of GDP, the rise in exports and decline in imports will reduce output available for U.S. consumption and investment by about 0.3 percent a year

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012462967

Does Age Structure Forecast Economic Growth?

Bloom, David E. - 2007

Increases in the proportion of the working age population can yield a "demographic dividend" that enhances the rate of economic growth. We estimate the parameters of an economic growth model with a cross section of countries over the period 1960 to 1980 and investigate whether the inclusion of...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012465433

Univariate vs. Multivariate Forecasts of GNP Growth and Stock Returns : Evidence and Implications for the Persistence of Shocks, Detrending Methods

Cochrane, John H. - 1990

Lagged GNP growth rates are poor forecasts of future GNP growth rates in postwar US data, leading to the impression that GNP is nearly a random walk. However, other variables, and especially the lagged consumption/GNP ratio, do forecast long-horizon GNP growth, and show that GNP has temporary...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012475603

Forecasting China's Economic Growth and Inflation

Higgins, Patrick - 2016

Although macroeconomic forecasting forms an integral part of the policymaking process, there has been a serious lack of rigorous and systematic research in the evaluation of out-of-sample model-based forecasts of China's real GDP growth and CPI inflation. This paper fills this research gap by...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012456277