An otherwise conventional Keynesian macro model is modified to include inventories of final goods by (1) drawing a distinction between production and final sales, and (2) allowing for a negative effect of the level of inventories on production. Two models are presented: one in which the labor...

This working paper provides some preliminary results on the computational feasibility of nonlinear full information maximum likelihood (NECML) estimation. Severa1 of the test cases presented were also subjected to nonlinear three stage least square (NLBSLS) estimation in order to illustrate the...

The recent literature on rational expectations in macroeconomic theory is surveyed here with the objective of distilling from the various papers useful suggestions for econometric methodology. The paper is not concerned with the empirical questions with which these models have been associated,...

The Rational Distributed Lag Structural Form of an econometric model is introduced, and its relationship to several traditional forms of representation is discussed. The traditional forms are viewed as special cases of the Rational Structural Form. Thus, the latter provides a unified framework...

Four estimators of econometric models are compared for predictive accuracy. Two estimators assume that the parameters of the equations are subject to variation over time. The first of these, the adaptive regression technique (ADR), assumes that the intercept varies overtime, while the other, a...

The prediction accuracy of six estimators of econometric models are compared. Two of rthe estimators are ordinary least squares (OLS) and full-information maximum likelihood. (FML). The other four estimators are robust estimators in the sense that they give less weight to large residuals. One of...

This paper develops a threshold-augmented dynamic multi-country model (TGVAR) to quantify the macroeconomic effects of Covid-19. We show that there exist threshold effects in the relationship between output growth and excess global volatility at individual country levels in a significant...

Medical practitioners typically utilize the following protocol when advising pregnant women about testing for the possibility of genetic disorders: Pregnant women over the age of 35 should be tested for Down syndrome and other genetic disorders; for younger women, such tests are discouraged...

The SVAR and narrative approaches to estimating tax multipliers deliver significantly different results. The former yields multipliers of about 1 percent, whereas the latter produces much larger multipliers of about 3 percent. The SVAR and narrative approaches differ along two important...

This chapter assesses how models with search frictions have shaped our understanding of aggregate labor market outcomes in two contexts: business cycle fluctuations and long-run (trend) changes. We first consolidate data on aggregate labor market outcomes for a large set of OECD countries. We...