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Using Neural Networks to Predict Micro-Spatial Economic Growth
Khachiyan, Arman; Thomas, Anthony; Zhou, Huye; Hanson, … - National Bureau of Economic Research - 2021
We apply deep learning to daytime satellite imagery to predict changes in income and population at high spatial resolution in US data. For grid cells with lateral dimensions of 1.2km and 2.4km (where the average US county has dimension of 55.6km), our model predictions achieve R2 values of 0.85...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012794597
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A Comparison of Linear and Nonlinear Univariate Models for Forecasting Macroeconomic Time Series
Stock, James H. - 1998
A forecasting comparison is undertaken in which 49 univariate forecasting methods, plus various forecast pooling procedures, are used to forecast 215 U.S. monthly macroeconomic time series at three forecasting horizons over the period 1959 - 1996. All forecasts simulate real time implementation,...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012472204
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Financial Machine Learning
Kelly, Bryan T.; Xiu, Dacheng - National Bureau of Economic Research - 2023
We survey the nascent literature on machine learning in the study of financial markets. We highlight the best examples of what this line of research has to offer and recommend promising directions for future research. This survey is designed for both financial economists interested in grasping...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10014322889
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Predicting Insurance Demand from Risk Attitudes
Jaspersen, Johannes G. - 2019
Can measured risk attitudes and associated structural models predict insurance demand? In an experiment (n = 1,730), we …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012480452
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The Subprime Crisis and House Price Appreciation
Goetzmann, William N. - 2009
substantiates both supply and demand effects of past price trends in housing markets, particularly with respect to subprime mortgage …-loan collateral values may have affected both the demand and the supply of mortgages. Standard time series models using repeat …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012463316
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How Well Do Structural Demand Models Work? Counterfactual Predictions in School Choice
Pathak, Parag A. - 2017
Discrete choice demand models are widely used for counterfactual policy simulations, yet their out … choice models of school demand. In 2013, Boston Public Schools considered several new choice plans that differ in where …, suggesting that the choice models are indeed "structural." Our findings show that structural demand models can effectively …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012453696
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Demand Modeling, Forecasting, and Counterfactuals, Part I
Pathak, Parag A. - 2014
discrete choice models of demand compared to simpler alternatives. In 2013, Boston Public Schools (BPS) proposed alternative …. Pathak and Shi (2013) estimated discrete choice models of demand using families' historical choices and these demand models … of discrete choice models of demand in our context …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012458802
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Can Mobile-Linked Bank Accounts Bolster Savings? Evidence from a Randomized Controlled Trial in Sri Lanka
De Mel, Suresh - 2018
In developing economies, mobile-linked services have the potential to significantly reduce transaction costs and provide a truly new conduit that could be used to facilitate the flow of savings into banks. We test this premise by introducing a product that permits Sri Lankan households to...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012481004
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Financial Innovation and the Transactions Demand for Cash
Alvarez, Fernando E. - 2007
We document cash management patterns for households that are at odds with the predictions of deterministic inventory … models that abstract from precautionary motives. We extend the Baumol-Tobin cash inventory model to a dynamic environment … that allows for the possibility of withdrawing cash at random times at a low cost. This modification introduces a …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012465235
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Strategic Incompatibility in ATM Markets
Knittel, Christopher R. - 2006
We test whether firms use incompatibility strategically, using data from ATM markets. High ATM fees degrade the value of competitors' deposit accounts, and can in principle serve as a mechanism for siphoning depositors away from competitors or for creating deposit account differentiation. Our...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012466057