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Government spending at the zero lower bound (ZLB) is not necessarily welfare enhancing, even when its output multiplier …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012457979
We argue that the government-spending multiplier can be much larger than one when the zero lower bound on the nominal … larger is the value of the multiplier. After providing intuition for these results, we investigate the size of the multiplier … in a dynamic, stochastic, general equilibrium model. In this model the multiplier effect is substantially larger than one …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012463255
Is there a link between loose monetary conditions, credit growth, house price booms, and financial instability? This paper analyzes the role of interest rates and credit in driving house price booms and busts with data spanning 140 years of modern economic history in the advanced economies. We...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012457895
spending multiplier is large when DNWR binds, but the nature of recession matters due to the opposing response of inflation. In …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013210053
. With allowance for other factors holding back GDP growth during those wars, the multiplier linking government purchases to … as well. On the other hand, neoclassical models have a much lower multiplier, because they predict that consumption falls … when purchases rise. The key features of a model that delivers a higher multiplier are (1) the decline in the markup ratio …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012463153
We show that policy uncertainty about how the rising public debt will be stabilized accounts for the lack of deflation in the US economy at the zero lower bound. We first estimate a Markov-switching VAR to highlight that a zero-lower-bound regime captures most of the comovements during the Great...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012458428
This paper investigates whether U.S. government spending multipliers differ according to two potentially important features of the economy: (1) the amount of slack and (2) whether interest rates are near the zero lower bound. We shed light on these questions by analyzing new quarterly historical...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012457947
or decreases, the "true" long-run multiplier for bad times (and government spending going up) turns out to be 2 ….3 compared to 1.3 if we just distinguish between recession and expansion. In extreme recessions, the long-run multiplier reaches …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012458132
A key question that has arisen during recent debates is whether government spending multipliers are larger during times when resources are idle. This paper seeks to shed light on this question by analyzing new quarterly historical data covering multiple large wars and depressions in the U.S. and...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012459892
We analyze whether government spending multipliers differ by the sign of the shock. Using aggregate historical U.S. data, we apply Ben Zeev's (2020) nonlinear diagnostic tests and find evidence of nonlinearities in the impulse response functions of both government spending and GDP. We then...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10014247936